At the Trump-Xi Summit, China Holds the Cards While Trump Chases Symbolic Wins

President Donald Trump’s upcoming summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping in Beijing is shaping up less as a negotiation between equals and more as a stage for China to assert dominance. Since Trump’s first visit in 2017, when Xi rolled out the red carpet and $250 billion in business deals, the dynamic has shifted dramatically. Now, Xi arrives confident that China’s rise is inevitable and that the West, led by the United States, is in decline.

China’s strategic use of rare earth minerals—critical for modern technology—has given Beijing a powerful lever over Washington. When Trump escalated tariffs to unprecedented levels, China responded by intermittently restricting rare earth exports, forcing Trump to back down rather than escalate further. This uneasy détente favors Beijing, which continues to expand its economic and geopolitical toolkit, including anti-foreign sanctions.

Four key issues will dominate the summit. Economically, China wants time to shore up its industries and revive a slowing economy, while Trump appears focused on scoring headline-grabbing deals like Boeing purchases or soybean buys. But such gestures risk repeating past failures like the hollow $83.7 billion West Virginia memorandum of understanding from 2017, a deal that never materialized.

Taiwan is a flashpoint Beijing will press hard on, seeking a U.S. policy shift to explicitly oppose Taiwan independence and pre-negotiation on arms sales—moves that would mark a significant U.S. retreat. The Trump administration has already delayed major arms packages, signaling susceptibility to Chinese pressure.

Iran complicates matters further. The U.S. Navy’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and interception of tankers bound for China occur even as Beijing provides political and possibly intelligence support to Tehran. Neither side expects breakthroughs here, but both want the appearance of stability despite deep tensions.

Finally, artificial intelligence will be on the agenda, building on previous dialogues aimed at preventing AI’s link to nuclear command systems. However, any progress is likely to be modest.

This summit is just the beginning. Future meetings at APEC in Shenzhen, the G20 in Miami, and a potential Xi visit to Washington may see China continue to “manage” the U.S., encouraging Trump to delay necessary competitive moves under the guise of bilateral stability. The result: a détente that benefits Beijing at America’s expense.

In short, Trump arrives in Beijing chasing symbolism while China holds the real cards—and the world watches as U.S. influence wanes.