U.S. election markets for 2028 show high trading volumes, with Gavin Newsom leading Democratic nominees at 28%, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Republican frontrunner at 49%, and JD Vance as potential winner at 24%. International markets exhibit strong conviction on Dutch and Hungarian political outcomes, while overall market activity exceeds $1.3 billion, reflecting significant trader engagement and regulatory concerns.

Elections Markets Brief: February 22, 2026

US 2028 markets dominate with Democratic Nominee at $692.7M volume led by Gavin Newsom (28%), Republican Nominee at $316.9M led by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (49%), and Presidential Winner at $312.9M led by JD Vance (24%). International markets show conviction with Dutch coalition at 100% and Hungarian PM at 56%. 24-hour volume exceeds $14M across key markets amid ETF competition and security warnings.

Prediction markets exhibit strong activity on 2028 US races, with over $1.3B cumulative volume across top nominees and winner markets, including $8.6M in 24-hour trades. International focus persists on Dutch and Hungarian outcomes at high conviction levels, while firms like Roundhill, GraniteShares, and Bitwise vie for prediction market ETFs and security risks gain attention per Atlantic Council warnings.

Elections Markets to Watch

2028 US Markets Activity

Top US markets concentrate on 2028 nominees and winner, with Democrats favoring Gavin Newsom at 28% and Republicans pricing Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49%. The overall winner market sees JD Vance at 24%, supported by $312.9M volume. Democrats hold 55% edge in party winner market, 84% for 2026 House control.

International Developments & Risks

Dutch coalition market locks at 100% for VVD + CDA + D66 on $68.8M volume, while Péter Magyar leads Hungary PM at 56%. ETF launches by Roundhill, GraniteShares, and Bitwise target election contracts; Atlantic Council flags foreign manipulation risks in thin markets.

Key Highlights

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom leads at 28% with $692.7M volume ($4.1M 24h)

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leads at 49% with $316.9M volume ($2.3M 24h)

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance leads at 24% with $312.9M volume ($2.2M 24h)

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

VVD + CDA + D66 at 100% with $68.8M volume ($2.3M 24h)

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Péter Magyar at 56% with $20.7M volume ($806.5K 24h)

Traders eye 2028 US positioning amid high volumes, with international conviction plays stable; monitor ETF approvals and security measures for volatility.

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Elections Markets Brief: February 22, 2026 - MLQ.ai