High trading activity continues in US 2028 presidential markets, with Gavin Newsom leading as Democratic nominee at $697 million and JD Vance as winning candidate at $317.8 million. International markets show strong betting on Dutch coalition formation and Hungarian leadership, while US midterm bets favor Democratic control of the House. Overall, trader focus remains on upcoming election races and European political developments.

Elections Markets Brief: February 23, 2026

US 2028 presidential markets lead activity with Democratic Nominee at $697M volume (Gavin Newsom 28%) and Presidential Winner at $317.8M (JD Vance 23%). International markets see strong trading on Dutch coalition (VVD + CDA + D66 100%) and Hungarian PM (Péter Magyar 57%). 24h volumes total millions across top markets, reflecting trader focus on 2028 races and European politics.

Prediction markets show sustained high activity in 2028 US presidential races, with Democratic Nominee volume hitting $697M led by Gavin Newsom at 28%, while Republican Nominee at $320M favors Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49%. The overall winner market ($317.8M, 24h $4.6M) prices JD Vance at 23%, amid $4.4M daily volume on the Dem side. International bets concentrate on Dutch and Hungarian outcomes.

Elections Markets to Watch

2028 US Presidential Markets

Dominant volumes concentrate in nominee races: Dem Nominee ($697M) led by Newsom (28%), aligning with PredictIt at 31%; GOP Nominee ($320M) prices RFK Jr. at 49%. The winner market ($317.8M) favors Vance (23%) over Newsom (18%), with Democrats at 55% in party control bets. Platforms like Polymarket aggregate real-time sentiment across high-liquidity trades.

International and 2026 Midterms Activity

European markets draw bets on Dutch coalition (100% on VVD + CDA + D66, $70.3M) and Hungarian PM (Magyar 57%, $21.6M). US midterms see Democrats at 84% for House control ($3.2M) and R Senate/D House at 42% ($2.5M), informing forecasts on key seats.

Key Highlights

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom leads at 28% with $697M volume (24h: $4.4M)

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% atop $320M volume (24h: $3.0M)

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance leads at 23% in $317.8M market (24h: $4.6M)

Which coalition will form the next Dutch government?

VVD + CDA + D66 at 100% with $70.3M volume (24h: $1.5M)

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Péter Magyar at 57% in $21.6M market (24h: $935.6K)

Traders eye 2028 US races amid steady volumes; watch Dutch/Hungarian resolutions and 2026 midterm primaries for volatility shifts.

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Elections Markets Brief: February 23, 2026 - MLQ.ai