Government shutdown 2026 live updates, odds on Senate vote today - Delawareonline.com

Here's shutdown updates and odds on the next Senate vote today and when the Senate may pass a DHS funding bill to reopen the government amid missed paychecks, furloughs and US security concerns during the Iran war.

As Noem testifies before the Senate Judiciary Committee over the fatal shootings of two US citizens in Minnesota — and "luxury planes" for deportations — the Senate returned today at 10 a.m. ET and senators are scheduled for the next vote to pass a measure to fund DHS in the FY2026 budget. The House-backed appropriations bill (HR 7147) has twice failed during live Senate hearings, forcing the DHS shutdown to drag into day 18 today.

Live on the Senate floor this morning, Senate Majority Leader John Thune lambasted Senate Democrats for using the DHS shutdown as a "political pawn," stating that the longer the DHS shutdown drags on, airports will face delays and cancellations, with impacts already felt across FEMA and Cybersecurity. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, said he and fellow Democrats won't waiver until ICE reforms are made.

Here's the latest Kalshi and Polymarket betting odds predicting how long the government shutdown lasts.

How long will the government shutdown last? Govt shutdown news

The Polymarket government shutdown betting odds and Kalshi betting odds predict the shutdown will last 44 to 46 days, per live bets and trades on the legal US prediction markets today, March 3. Kalshi government shutdowns odds on how long will the government shutdown last hit a forecast of 45.7 days today.

Kalshi government shutdown

With over $3.5 million trade volume today, here's the latest Kalshi betting odds on how long the government shutdown lasts, or the latest projections on the partial government shutdown length:

98% believe it will end past 10 a.m. March 6 (20+ days)

91% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on March 11 (25+ days)

80% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on March 16 (30+ days)

65% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on March 21 (35+ days)

63% believe it will end past 10 a.m. on March 26 (40+ days)

At least 40+ days had the most trades as of Tuesday afternoon, March 3.

Polymarket government shutdown

Polymarket betting odds of how long the DHS shutdown lasts predicted the government shutdown lasts 44 days, the latest live odds and projections on the legal US prediction market showed. Nearing $1.3 million in trade volume, the Polymarket odds show:

96% believe it will end in 21+ days

73% believe it will end in 30+ days

23% believe it will end in 60+ days

Is there a Senate vote today? Government shutdown 2026 update today

A Senate vote today, March 3, is possible this afternoon. The Senate returned at 10 a.m. ET today and adjourned for a short recess and returned at 2:15 p.m. Should a vote on the government shutdown take place, it will occur this afternoon or evening. The Senate can meet for as many hours as they want while in session.

Will the next Senate vote be enough to pass DHS funding bill?

Odds lawmakers declare the government shutdown 2026 over today is slim, since Senate Republicans and Senate Democrats, now on day 18 of the DHS shutdown, remain at odds over a DHS funding bill. Very little progress has been made on the Senate floor since a second failed vote last week, with Senate Democrats seeking to rein in ICE following the shooting deaths of Alex Pretti and Renee Good in Minnesota.

While betting odds give the shutdown an aggregate 45-day length, at least 17% of people say the shutdown lasts 90+ days, through May 15, per Kalshi predictions. Some 23% of people on Polymarket say the shutdown lasts 60+ days.

What was the longest government shutdown in US history?

The last government shutdown 2025 was 43 days, considered the longest government shutdown in history, stretching from Oct. 1, 2025, to Nov. 12, 2025. Senate Democrats and Republicans, including President Donald Trump, failed to agree on a short-term deal to keep the government funded, only passing (temporary) funding bills through Jan. 30.

Lori Comstock is a New Jersey-based journalist with the Mid-Atlantic Connect Team.