Hedging Is the New Normal in a World Trump Tore Apart

The era of smooth globalization is dead, and hedging has taken its place as the new normal in geopolitics. The shocks of recent years—COVID-19, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and notably Donald Trump’s disruptive tariffs—have forced countries to abandon old assumptions about dependable allies and stable partnerships.

Once, nations trusted in shared values and rules-based trade to guide cooperation. Now, states are scrambling to avoid exclusive dependence on any single partner. This means cultivating competing relationships across trade, technology, finance, energy, and security to ensure they aren’t left vulnerable when crises hit or alliances fracture.

Trump’s tariffs stand out as a prime example of this upheaval. By weaponizing trade policy for political gain, his administration shattered previous norms and triggered retaliatory tariffs that harmed American workers and allies alike. This contributed to a fractured global system where no one can count on traditional partners.

The practice of hedging is no longer limited to emerging powers like India balancing ties between the US and Russia. It has become a central strategy for all states, great and small, as they navigate a world where the global order itself is unraveling. The result is a more unpredictable and dangerous international landscape.

This shift underscores how Trump-era policies didn’t just disrupt markets; they accelerated a fundamental transformation in international relations. Hedging reflects a world where trust is scarce, and every nation looks out for itself first—an outcome that threatens democratic cooperation and global stability.

In short, the chaos Trump unleashed on trade and diplomacy isn’t just a temporary mess. It’s the new normal, forcing countries to hedge their bets in a fractured, uncertain world. And that should alarm anyone who cares about accountability, democracy, and a rules-based international order.