Hungary’s Election Could End Orbán’s Rule But Not His Autocratic Legacy

Hungarians head to the polls this Sunday in an election that could finally unseat Viktor Orbán, Europe’s longest-serving prime minister and architect of a deeply entrenched electoral autocracy. Orbán’s Fidesz party has dominated Hungarian politics for 16 years, using gerrymandering, voter manipulation, and legal changes to cement power. But despite opposition leader Péter Magyar and his Tisza party leading in the polls, their path to power is riddled with obstacles.

Orbán’s regime has stacked the deck heavily in its favor. Electoral districts have been redrawn to benefit Fidesz, and “winner compensation” rules boost the strongest party disproportionately. Hungarian minorities abroad, who overwhelmingly support Orbán, have been granted voting rights, skewing results. Investigations reveal ongoing fraud tactics like chain voting, voter buying, and intimidation, especially in poor regions. This means even if Magyar wins the popular vote, securing a parliamentary majority—and especially the two-thirds supermajority needed to undo Orbán’s constitutional changes—is far from guaranteed.

The damage Orbán’s government has done runs deep. Key institutions like the constitutional court, the prosecutor general’s office, and the media authority are staffed with Fidesz loyalists. The president, Tamás Sulyok, also a Fidesz appointee, wields newly expanded powers that could obstruct reform efforts by vetoing legislation or referring laws to the friendly constitutional court. This setup mirrors the challenges faced by Poland’s new government after its 2023 election win, where entrenched rightwing forces have blocked democratic reforms.

Even if Magyar’s Tisza party gains power, the opposition leader’s conservative background and long history within Fidesz raise doubts about how much he will break from Orbán’s agenda. Early analyses of Magyar’s voting in the European parliament show alignment with Fidesz on key issues like immigration and Ukraine, and his party opposes EU migrant quotas and Ukraine’s accelerated EU accession. While Magyar promises better relations with Brussels, ideological divides remain.

Hungary’s political landscape remains firmly rightwing. The new parliament is expected to be dominated by rightwing parties, including Magyar’s Tisza, Orbán’s Fidesz, and possibly the extreme-right Our Homeland Movement. Magyar has been cautious on progressive issues like LGBTQ+ rights, signaling he may not push a liberal democratic agenda aggressively.

The bottom line is clear: ousting Orbán would be a crucial first step, but Hungary’s return to genuine liberal democracy faces a long, uphill battle. The autocratic structures Orbán built won’t disappear overnight, and Magyar’s own political stance suggests continuity more than rupture. For those invested in democratic accountability and human rights in Hungary, vigilance and sustained pressure will be essential in the years ahead.