Hungary's Election Could End Trump's Favorite Autocrat's 16-Year Reign

Trump's European Buddy Might Be Out of a Job

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has spent 16 years consolidating power, undermining democratic institutions, and cozying up to Vladimir Putin. Now his grip on Hungary is slipping.

Polls ahead of the April 12 parliamentary elections show opposition leader Péter Magyar and his Tisza Party leading Orbán by a significant margin. If those numbers hold, it would end the reign of the EU's longest-serving leader and deliver a major blow to both Moscow and Washington—specifically to Putin, who would lose his most valuable EU ally, and to Donald Trump, who has publicly endorsed Orbán and sent VP JD Vance to Budapest on the eve of the election to demonstrate support.

How Orbán Became Putin's Man in Brussels

Critics have long accused Orbán of functioning as an unofficial Russian agent within the European Union. The evidence backs that up.

Hungary has consistently blocked Ukraine's EU accession, refused to phase out Russian oil and gas imports, and repeatedly delayed aid packages for Kyiv. Budapest is currently holding up a 90 billion euro EU loan to Ukraine, with Orbán demanding the resumption of Russian oil deliveries through the Druzhba pipeline as his price for dropping the veto.

Because key EU decisions require unanimous consent from all member states, Orbán has weaponized Hungary's veto power to undermine support for Ukraine at every turn. It is a textbook example of how one corrupt leader can hijack democratic institutions to serve authoritarian interests.

Leaked phone calls between Hungarian Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, which surfaced in recent weeks, show the Hungarian official directly coordinating actions with his Kremlin counterpart. EU leaders including Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and Irish Prime Minister Micheál Martin condemned the calls as "deeply disturbing" and "sinister."

Campaign Built on Anti-Ukrainian Propaganda

Orbán's re-election strategy has leaned heavily on anti-Ukrainian rhetoric and disinformation. Campaign billboards for his Fidesz party have featured portraits of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy alongside negative slogans portraying the Ukrainian leader as begging for money or representing a "pro-war lobby" in Brussels. Hungarian officials have claimed that Ukraine "will stop at nothing" to prevent Orbán's re-election—a baseless accusation designed to deflect from Budapest's own interference on behalf of Moscow.

The campaign has also been marred by Russian-linked disinformation operations. So-called "doppelganger" content—fake news reports designed to look indistinguishable from legitimate journalism—has circulated widely, intended to tarnish the opposition and damage Hungary's relationships with international partners.

What Happens If Orbán Loses

Opposition leader Péter Magyar is proposing a dramatic shift in Hungary's geopolitical posture. While cautious in his public statements on Ukraine, Magyar's platform favors improved ties with NATO and the EU. He has vowed to end what he calls the "betrayal" of Hungarian and European interests through collusion with Russia, framing the election as a "referendum" on Hungary's place in the world.

If Orbán loses, he will likely face investigation for his actions over the past 16 years, including uncomfortable questions about the nature of his ties to the Kremlin. Internationally, his defeat would strip Putin of his most important EU ally, making it far more difficult for Moscow to influence European politics. Trump would also lose a key European partner at a time when transatlantic relations are becoming increasingly strained.

For Brussels and Kyiv, a change in Budapest would ease Ukraine's integration into the EU and remove a major obstacle to European support for the Ukrainian war effort.

The Fix May Already Be In

While polling data suggests a likely opposition victory, the outcome is expected to be close. The Hungarian electoral system is widely seen as favoring the ruling party, and there are concerns over possible irregularities including vote buying, voter fraud, and election day intimidation. In the event of a close result, Orbán's government may contest the outcome.

A bipartisan group of US Senators recently introduced sanctions legislation aimed at encouraging Hungary to end its reliance on Russian energy and addressing Orbán's obstruction of aid to Ukraine. The move signals that not everyone in Washington is on board with Trump's embrace of the Hungarian autocrat.

The stakes could hardly be higher. Sunday's vote will determine whether Hungary remains Putin's inside man in the EU or rejoins the community of democratic nations. For Orbán, it may also determine whether he retires as a statesman or ends up answering for 16 years of corruption and collaboration with an enemy regime.