ICE Raids Are Backfiring, Hurting US Workers and Immigrants Alike, Economist Finds

The Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement isn’t just a humanitarian crisis—it’s an economic one, too. Economist Chloe East of the University of Colorado Boulder reveals that heightened ICE activity during Trump’s second term has caused massive labor market disruptions across the country, harming both immigrant and US-born workers.

East’s data shows that in communities experiencing increased ICE raids, roughly 1,300 immigrants are directly removed through arrests and deportations. But the ripple effect is far worse: about 7,500 more immigrants withdraw from the labor market out of fear they might be targeted if they leave their homes to work. This chilling effect slashes employment rates among immigrants who remain in the US.

The fallout doesn’t stop there. Contrary to the simplistic political narrative that deporting immigrants frees up jobs for Americans, East finds the opposite. US-born workers in industries reliant on immigrant labor—especially construction—also suffer. Immigrants typically fill physically demanding, seasonal roles like construction site laborers, while US-born workers hold supervisory or technical positions. When immigrant labor disappears, construction firms cut back on projects, reducing demand for all workers, including American electricians, roofers, and managers.

“The conventional wisdom is really coming from a very simple economic model where we think if we remove one worker from the labor market through detention or deportation, that’s going to free up one job for a US-born worker,” East explains. “But the reality is that’s not how our labor market works. It’s much more flexible and dynamic than that.”

The consequences extend beyond the job market, hitting the pocketbooks of everyday Americans and slowing local economies. East’s findings expose the true cost of mass deportations: they don’t just punish immigrant communities; they also undermine the economic wellbeing of US-born workers and the broader public.

This research adds a crucial economic perspective to the growing chorus demanding accountability for the Trump administration’s immigration policies. ICE raids are not just a tool of authoritarian overreach—they are a blunt instrument that damages our communities and economy alike.