If you are Marco Rubio and you want to become President one day, how would you proceed ...
Marco Rubio's political trajectory has shifted from a perceived failure after 2016 to a key Trump ally and influential figure in the State Department. With the 2028 Republican nomination possibly going to JD Vance, Rubio faces decisions about whether to remain out of the race, run as Vance’s running mate, or pursue his own nomination, each with associated risks and potential benefits for his future presidential ambitions.
If you are Marco Rubio and you want to become President one day, how would you proceed from here?
Rubio’s career seemed DOA after being humiliated by Trump in 2016. But as time passed, he positioned himself as a staunchly MAGA Trump ally. He got a second wind as Trump’s Secretary of State, where for better or worse, he has actually been a consequential steward of the State Department who has profoundly shaped the trajectory of American foreign policy. And he’s not only managed to stay in Trump’s good graces; by all accounts he’s genuinely seemed to impress Trump.
The 2028 nomination looks to be JD Vance’s for the taking, if all else holds equal and barring some falling out with Trump (which is not unheard of among Trump’s Vice-Presidents). And Rubio has publicly endorsed Vance.
Put yourself in Rubio’s shoes with the goal of hoping to one day become President. You have several paths in front of you. Do you:
- Stay out of 2028 entirely, let Vance have the nomination, and have no place on the ticket?
- Be Vance’s running mate in 2028?
- Run for the 2028 nomination?
Risks of Choice 1 are if Vance win, his VP is likely next in line. This is the DeSantis fate, as he could’ve credibly positioned himself as “Trump but electable” in 2028 had Trump lost 2024, but given that Trump won, Vance became his heir apparent and DeSantis now finds himself in the political wilderness of irrelevancy as he prepares to leave office in less than a year. Upsides of Choice 1 are if Vance loses, Rubio could become the next in line for 2032. He’d only be 61, and could credibly claim the mantle of MAGA if he remains on good terms with Trump.
Risks of Choice 2 are the ticket loses. Or if the ticket wins, he’d have to wait until 2036. He’d still only be 65 in 2036, but would America realistically elect a 4th Republican term in a row, much less a 5th? And if Vance wins but loses reelection, is he tarnished from that? Upsides are he’d be the de facto heir apparent.
Risks of Choice 3 are losing and losing badly. The other DeSantis curse. Only possible upside is in the unlikely event Vance implodes, and timing - Rubio’s political capital is likely not going to ever be as high as it is now. Though this is similar thinking to DeSantis ahead of 2024, and that backfired.
What are your thoughts? Which path would you advise he choose?
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