India Doubles Down on Coal as Heatwave and Iran Conflict Cripple Energy Supplies

India, already the world’s third-largest carbon emitter, is ramping up coal-fired power generation amid two converging crises: an intense nationwide heatwave and energy supply disruptions linked to the ongoing Iran war. This toxic combination is forcing India’s power sector to lean heavily on coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, just as the country claims ambitious climate goals.

More than 70 percent of India’s electricity currently comes from coal-fired plants, and recent data from S&P Global Energy reveals coal power output climbed 3.5 percent in April compared to last year, reaching an average of 164.9 gigawatts. This uptick comes despite India’s February announcement that over half of its installed power capacity is from non-fossil sources like solar and wind. The reality is coal remains the backbone of India’s energy grid, accounting for nearly 43 percent of total capacity.

The Iran war has throttled liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies, a key component of India’s energy mix, since about 60 percent of its LNG imports transit the Strait of Hormuz, a flashpoint in Middle East tensions. Higher LNG prices have made gas-fired power generation economically unviable, pushing utilities to burn more coal to meet soaring demand driven by record-breaking heat. On April 27, all 50 of the world’s hottest cities were in India, according to local temperature monitoring data.

Experts warn that if El Niño conditions develop, coal power generation could surge another 10 percent year over year. This spells bad news for India’s climate targets. The government pledged last month to reduce emissions intensity by 47 percent by 2035 and achieve net-zero by 2070. Yet, coal’s resurgence threatens to derail these commitments.

Industrial sectors beyond power generation, such as cement manufacturing, are also increasing coal use due to disruptions in supplies of petroleum coke caused by Middle East conflict. This substitution further entrenches fossil fuel dependence and pollution.

While India’s carbon emissions growth slowed last year—the slowest in two decades—this recent spike in coal consumption highlights the fragility of its energy transition. The brutal heatwave and geopolitical turmoil reveal how vulnerable India’s energy system remains to external shocks, forcing dangerous compromises on climate and public health.

India’s coal addiction is a stark reminder that geopolitical conflicts like the Iran war have far-reaching consequences beyond borders, exacerbating climate and energy crises in vulnerable nations. Unless India and the global community address these intertwined challenges urgently, the planet’s climate goals will slip further out of reach.