Iran Pushes for Control of Strait of Hormuz to Cement Regional Power Amid War

The latest report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) and the Critical Threats Project at AEI reveals a bold Iranian strategy that goes far beyond mere survival in the ongoing conflict. Iran’s principal positive strategic objective is to gain formal recognition of its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz — a vital maritime passage through which a significant share of the world’s oil supply transits.

Currently, Iran has been denying access to the Strait through mining, drone and missile attacks, and harassment by fast attack boats. But these tactics are temporary measures. Long-term control requires a negotiated agreement with the United States that would legitimize Iranian authority to regulate and enforce maritime traffic. This would allow Iran to impose tolls, punish Gulf states collaborating with the US or Israel, and disrupt global markets at will.

Iranian negotiators have increasingly prioritized this demand, seeing control over the Strait as a safeguard against future wars with Israel and the US. Recognition by the US would transform Iran’s current aggressive tactics into lawful enforcement actions, making any US or allied interference an act of war.

The report highlights concrete steps Iran is already taking to assert this control. On May 6, Iran’s so-called “Persian Gulf Strait Authority” sent an email to shipping companies demanding payments in Iranian rials and guarantees from Iranian banks — a direct challenge to US sanctions. If Iran’s demands are met, these requirements would become legitimate rules of passage, forcing ships to violate US sanctions to transit the Strait.

Iran’s ambitions extend beyond maritime dominance. The regime is also seeking economic relief, including the unfreezing of nearly $100 billion in assets, to rebuild its ballistic missile program — a key element of its strategic deterrence. US sanctions on Iranian oil have severely limited Tehran’s revenue, but lifting these sanctions would provide the funds Iran needs to accelerate missile development.

Despite these aggressive aims, Iran continues to focus on avoiding economic collapse and domestic unrest that could threaten regime survival. The regime is preparing for economic instability, signaling that it will not surrender under pressure but will manage internal risks to maintain power.

This report underscores the dangerous stakes of the US-Iran conflict. Iran’s push to control the Strait of Hormuz would fundamentally alter regional security and global trade, empowering Tehran to challenge US influence with near impunity. The US must recognize that any concession granting Iran this legitimacy would come at a steep cost to American interests and regional allies.