Iran War Threatens 10 Billion Meals a Week as Fertiliser Supplies Dry Up

The war in Iran is not just a regional conflict—it is a looming global food crisis in the making. Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara, a leading fertiliser producer, has sounded the alarm that hostilities blocking shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are choking off vital fertiliser supplies. This disruption could slash crop yields by up to 50% in some cases, jeopardizing the production of as many as 10 billion meals every week worldwide.

Holsether told the BBC that the war has already halted the production of half a million tons of nitrogen fertiliser, a key ingredient for growing staple crops. The shortage drives up fertiliser prices by 80%, compounding the rising costs of energy and other farm inputs. Yet, crop prices have not caught up, squeezing farmers and threatening global food security.

The United Nations reports that about a third of the world's fertilisers transit the Strait of Hormuz, making this choke point critical. If the conflict drags on, Holsether warns of a dangerous bidding war for food. Wealthier countries may outbid poorer ones, leaving the most vulnerable populations in developing nations to bear the brunt of food scarcity and hunger.

In the UK, food inflation is expected to surge, with forecasts predicting up to 10% increases by December. The Bank of England already anticipates food price inflation rising above 4.6% in September. Meanwhile, the UN World Food Programme projects that the Middle East conflict’s fallout could push 45 million more people into acute hunger by 2026, with Asia and the Pacific facing the sharpest rises in food insecurity.

This crisis exposes the catastrophic consequences of the Trump administration's reckless foreign policy escalation in Iran. By weaponizing economic warfare and military provocations, the administration has not only destabilized a volatile region but also threatened the basic human right to food for millions around the world. As food prices climb and supplies dwindle, the most vulnerable bear the costs of this manufactured war.

We must hold accountable those who prioritize power consolidation over global stability and human lives. The stakes could not be higher—this is not just a geopolitical conflict; it is a fight for the survival of billions.