Iran War Threatens Food Security in Africa as Fertiliser Prices Soar, Warns Industry Giant

The conflict involving Iran is already rippling through global food supply chains, with particularly dire consequences for Africa’s poorest communities. Svein Tore Holsether, CEO of Yara International—the world’s largest fertiliser producer—issued a stark warning that soaring fertiliser prices and supply shortages could trigger a “global auction” that leaves vulnerable countries out in the cold.

Yara International operates in 60 countries and sells to 140, making it a key player in global agriculture. Holsether emphasized that while Africa has the potential to be a major food producer, it remains heavily reliant on imported food and fertilisers. The war’s disruption threatens to exacerbate existing food insecurity rather than spark famine in wealthier regions like Europe.

The crisis stems from multiple factors. About 35 percent of the world’s urea supply—a crucial fertiliser ingredient—originates from Gulf states, whose production has been severely restricted by the conflict. Prices for urea have surged 60 to 70 percent since the US and Israel escalated their war on Iran in late February. Meanwhile, ammonia production, essential for nitrogen-based fertilisers, has been curtailed as some countries suspend operations due to safety risks amid the war.

Chris Rogers, head of supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, highlighted Africa’s uneven dependence on Middle Eastern fertilisers, with countries like Ethiopia and Kenya particularly vulnerable. The timing could not be worse: sub-Saharan Africa’s sowing season is imminent, and farmers need fertiliser not only for this year’s crops but also to build reserves for future planting cycles.

While the European Union has started easing state subsidy rules and offering grants to help farmers cope with higher costs caused by the Iran war, African farmers receive little to no such support. Holsether pointed out that African soils are already under-fertilized and farming conditions less optimized than in Europe, meaning any reduction in fertiliser use could have catastrophic effects on yields and food availability.

This unfolding crisis adds another layer to the broader consequences of the Trump administration’s foreign policy misadventures, which have fueled conflict and instability abroad while ignoring the cascading impact on global food security. The warning from Yara’s CEO is a call to world leaders: act now to prevent a humanitarian disaster that will hit the world’s most vulnerable the hardest.