Iran War’s Ripple Effect: Asia’s Rice Bowls at Risk as Fertilizer Supplies Dry Up

As bombs fell and sanctions tightened on Iran, the fallout spread far beyond oil markets. The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade, effectively shut down after US and Israeli strikes on Iran on February 28. This disruption sent fertilizer prices soaring—urea, the most common nitrogen fertilizer, jumped over 40% in weeks.

China, the world’s largest fertilizer producer responsible for 25% of global output, responded by slamming its export doors shut in March. Beijing’s export bans, now restricting between 50% and 80% of fertilizer shipments, aim to safeguard domestic food production under a 2023 national food security law. Fertilizer exporters in China’s Shandong province confirm government orders to halt shipments, leaving Asian farmers scrambling.

The consequences are dire. Southeast Asia’s rice-producing heartlands—from Thailand’s Chachoengsao province to Vietnam’s Mekong Delta—depend heavily on Chinese fertilizer. Vietnam imports over half its fertilizer from China, and the Philippines relies on China for 75% of its supply, with almost no domestic alternatives. The Philippines also depends on Vietnam for nearly 80% of its rice imports, creating a precarious chain of dependency.

Farmers like 60-year-old Suchart Piamsomboon in Thailand face a grim choice: plant crops with scarce, expensive fertilizer or abandon farming altogether. “Farming only leads to financial losses,” he says. Without affordable fertilizer, planting seasons risk collapse, threatening harvests that feed billions.

This crisis exposes how the Trump administration’s manufactured conflict with Iran extends beyond geopolitical posturing. By destabilizing critical supply chains, it endangers food security across Asia, risking hunger and economic hardship for millions. The war’s true cost is not just oil—it’s the rice bowls of the world.