JD Vance vowed no more wars. Do people in his hometown feel betrayed? - The Times

“It’s what I voted for. I’m all for it, one hundred per cent,” Dwayne Whistman says when asked about President Trump’s attacks on Iran.

Perched on a stool in a bar in Middletown, Ohio — the rust belt city immortalised in JD Vance’s bestselling memoir Hillbilly Elegy — Whistman, a 59-year-old plumber, added: “Iran has threatened us for 45 years … they’re going to follow through with it if we don’t put a stop to it. That’s what I believe.”

His verdict is, in many ways, surprising. This week, as American bombs rained down on Tehran, commentators speculated that voters who backed Trump in 2024 might punish him for betraying the values of “America First”. Prominent voices in the Maga movement, including Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly, have sharply criticised the president.

The reality is more nuanced. While initial polls suggested widespread disapproval for the strikes, further surveys show the picture is more divided than might be assumed:

If the polls are to be believed, a majority of Republicans backed Trump’s action on Iran. That was certainly the case in Middletown, where The Times canvassed views this week.

Vance grew up in Middletown, a city of just under 51,000 people where grand, historic buildings — relics of an illustrious past — stand vacant, their windows boarded up.

They are the ghosts of a once-booming city that drew thousands of transplants from the mountains of Appalachia, like Vance’s grandparents, who travelled north on the promise of well-paid jobs in the steel mills and surrounding factories.

• Why did Trump attack Iran? The forces that drove US action

Residents are quick to tell you that the hollowed-out city is not what it once was, that before the bulk of its manufacturing moved abroad, Ronald Reagan stayed at its once-illustrious Manchester Inn.

The city’s decline mirrors that of countless post-industrial towns in the US, where Trump won over blue-collar workers with his promise to Make America Great Again. More than 60 per cent of voters in Butler County, which includes most of Middletown, supported Trump in the past three elections.

Ken Garland, a contractor, is a registered independent who had voted for the Democratic Party his whole life before 2024.

That year, he abandoned the party to vote for Trump, believing it would be better for the economy and his family, even if he did not like the president personally. Garland, 57, said that while he thinks Trump is a “buffoon”, he does not disagree with the strikes in Iran and does not regret voting for him. “I don’t think that the bully on the block needs a nuclear weapon,” he said. “My opinion is what’s happening right now might be a good thing, history will tell that story.”

His son, Cody Garland, 22, who works at the steel mill on the edge of the city that once employed Vance’s grandfather Jim, was more full-throated in his support.

“I think they [Iran] had it coming, for sure,” he said. He believes capturing President Maduro of Venezuela was a great success because the US gained oil. He would vote for Trump for a third term if he could.

Vicki Thaxton, a former Wendy’s fast-food manager, was a recent convert. The lifelong Democrat voted Republican for the first time in 2024, flipping because she believed in Trump’s vow to put America first and restore the country to its former glory.

She does not agree with the strikes in Iran, but that has not dampened her support for Trump. “I don’t want any war, so I don’t even watch the news right now, because it hurts me,” she said. Does she feel betrayed? “No, wars happen every day. I can’t control them, I just don’t watch them.” Thaxton, 59, said she still supported Trump “no matter what”.

Although Trump is enjoying some support now, analysts and professors have warned that it could evaporate if the war drags on.

Paul Beck, a political science professor at Ohio State University, said Americans tended to “rally around the flag” and support their leaders during foreign conflicts. “But it is still early days; if it plays out badly for the administration, the public will turn on Trump quickly,” he said. “Maybe not the hardcore Maga supporters, but most of the public will turn on him very quickly, because they’ve been very wary about this kind of involvement, particularly after Afghanistan and Iraq.”

Six US troops and hundreds of Iranians have already been killed in the conflict. If those numbers continue to climb, support is likely to plummet, experts predict. Trump has not ruled out putting US boots on the ground, which could mark a red line for some supporters.

“This isn’t Iraq or Afghanistan yet,” said Matt Dole, a Republican strategist from Ohio. “The difference maker is the longer it lasts, the more entangled we become, the more casualties that we rack up, the president will start to see people go, ‘boy, is this in the long-term interests of what we’re doing?’, and I think support will erode.”

For some voters, it already has. Lisa Little, a 68-year-old retired bartender, said the war in Iran had made her regret her vote for Trump.

She used to live on McKinley Street, down the road from Vance’s grandmother Bonnie, who raised him while his mother battled addiction. She remembers Bonnie, whom Vance called Mawmaw, as someone who “could talk 100 miles an hour with a cigarette hanging from her mouth” and would “curse like a sailor”.

Little said she would stand by Trump as she would a family member, but added: “I don’t want [America] to be the bully of the world, and I don’t want everybody to hate us.”

Other voters, a mixture of Democrats and non-voters, mostly disagreed with the war or remained undecided. Some said their Republican friends had privately expressed concern about the strikes.

While Trump could be punished by losing Republican seats in Congress at the midterms in November, the politician who has the most to lose from this conflict is Vance. The vice-president is the heir apparent to Trump’s Maga throne, and the conflict has the potential to destroy his 2028 chances.

“If it goes past B-2 bombers and flying missiles off navy ships and requires ground forces to go in, I think you’ll see JD Vance moderate his support [for the conflict],” Dole said.

Vance was apparently apprehensive about the strikes behind closed doors, but on Monday he went into bat for Trump on Fox News.

That night, Trump pushed back against criticism, insisting that “Maga loves what I’m doing — every aspect of it”. The views of his voters in Middletown may be more nuanced, but it appears the US president can mostly rely on their support. For now.