Kennedy’s Medicaid Claims Collapse Under Fact-Checked Spending Cuts

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. recently doubled down on a misleading claim that the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), signed into law last year, does not cut Medicaid spending. At congressional hearings, Kennedy cited Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projections showing Medicaid spending rising from $668 billion in 2025 to $981 billion in 2036—a 47 percent increase—to argue that no cuts exist.

But health policy experts and independent analyses tell a very different story. The CBO estimates the OBBBA will reduce federal Medicaid spending by more than $900 billion over a decade. This includes imposing new work requirements on Medicaid enrollees, restricting states’ ability to raise revenues through provider taxes, and increasing barriers to enrollment and renewal. According to the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), these cuts will lead to 7.5 million more uninsured Americans by 2034.

Experts like Michael S. Sparer of Columbia University and Leighton Ku of George Washington University emphasize that Kennedy’s focus on total spending growth ignores the critical fact that Medicaid spending would have been far higher without the OBBBA. The spending reductions are real cuts by conventional budget scoring standards, and they translate into less healthcare access for millions.

Kennedy’s claim that these are not cuts because overall spending rises “is simply false,” says Sparer. Harvard’s Benjamin Sommers calls Kennedy’s argument “smoke and mirrors,” noting that healthcare costs naturally rise over time due to inflation and demographic changes. The cuts mean fewer services and financial strain on hospitals, doctors, and nursing homes.

Despite repeated challenges from Democrats during hearings, Kennedy dismissed concerns about the impact on mental health and other services. HHS spokesman Andrew Nixon framed the spending reductions as necessary reforms to ensure Medicaid serves its intended population, but experts warn these “reforms” come at the cost of millions losing coverage.

The bottom line: Kennedy’s attempts to spin the OBBBA’s Medicaid cuts as spending increases are a distortion of the facts. The law slashes Medicaid funding, threatens access to care, and will leave millions uninsured. We won’t let these cuts slide without calling them out for what they are.