London Playbook PM: Maga-ing it up as he goes - POLITICO

Presented by Instagram By EMILIO CASALICCHIO with NOAH KEATE PRESENTED BY Send tips here | Subscribe for free | Listen to Playbook and view in your browser Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchi…

Good afternoon. This is Emilio Casalicchio.

MONDAY CHEAT SHEET

— Keir Starmer said he does not believe in “regime change from the skies” as he questioned Donald Trump’s plan on Iran.

— The U.S. president earlier lashed out at Starmer for being slow to give even limited support to American action in the Middle East.

— The PM also said MPs will get a vote on “offensive” armed forces action but not on “defensive” action.

— Kemi Badenoch announced a plan to stop giving government leg-ups to minorities.

— MP staff are outraged about pay rises (or lack thereof.)

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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

HE MAGA-S IT UP AS HE GOES ALONG: Keir Starmer is making clear he fears Donald Trump has no plan to stop Iran descending into chaos after overthrowing its despotic leadership.

Not Don the groundwork: During a Commons statement this afternoon the PM said numerous times he would not commit troops to action in the Middle East without a “viable, thought-through plan” and said he does not believe in regime change “from the skies.”

Backbench management: That will cheer Labour MPs still traumatized in the wake of the 2003 Iraq war — which saw a complete breakdown in order and rampant civil war after the toppling of Saddam Hussein — although expect further requests for reassurance when the PM addresses the PLP at 6 p.m.

*Indeed: *Some Labour MPs even questioned the government approval for indirect involvement to protect British citizens and allies — after the Iranians sprayed bombs around the wider Middle East in response to the Americans killing their Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

*Defending the defense: *Starmer said the “limited” action he has authorized (allowing the U.S. to bomb weapons depots and launchers in Iran from British bases) is based on collective self-defense and protecting British lives under international law. “It’s important not only that there’s a lawful basis, but also a plan that is viable and thought-through,” he told the Commons.

*Spotted: *Starmer’s best political pal and Attorney General Richard Hermer was watching from the VIP galleries as the PM answered questions in the Commons.

*Not impressed: *Trump has lashed out at Starmer for taking “far too long” to approve even that limited assistance — after the U.K. rejected a U.S. request to help with the wider bombing and regime change campaign. “That’s probably never happened between our countries before,” the U.S. president told The Telegraph. “It sounds like he was worried about the legality.”

For good measure … Trump used the same Telegraph interview to give Starmer a fresh kicking over the Chagos Islands deal — branding it “a very woke thing” and noting his administration is “very disappointed in Keir.”

Regardless: Starmer told the Commons he acted in the U.K. “national interest” and is insisting Trump will not twist his arm.

*Indeed: *Ministers have been at pains to promise Britain won’t be sucked into a wider conflict. “That’s simply not true,” Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper told Sky News, while Middle East Minister Hamish Falconer told BBC Scotland Britain is “not at war” — a comment Starmer echoed in the Commons. No.10 is also refusing to state whether it supports regime change in Iran — insisting that’s a matter for the Iranian people.

*Grow some balls, mate: *Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch mocked Starmer for failing to back regime change — telling the Commons he doesn’t need international law to determine right and wrong. At a speech in Westminster this afternoon, she suggested international law that helps “the bad guys” should be junked. She set out her broad position in a social media post.

*But but but: *Badenoch dodged a question about whether regime change without a plan — a la Iraq — would be sensible. ITV’s Harry Horton asked at the speech whether the U.K. should not learn lessons from Iraq on that front. But Badenoch focused her answer on the misguided WMD justification for invading Iraq rather than the failure to plan for the fallout.

*Also piling in: *Reform boss Nigel Farage said “inaction” from Starmer threatens the relationship with the U.S and poses “a major threat to NATO.” Other opposition MPs questioned why the U.K. cannot now attack Iranian missile bases and launchers itself — if the self-defense case for letting the Americans use our pads is lawful.

*Pushing in the opposite direction: *The PM has already been forced to make clear he will not allow the U.S. to launch strikes from British bases in Cyprus — after the Cypriot government raised concerns about the suggestion and complained about not being kept in the loop with U.K. intentions.

Bear in mind: The Akrotiri base in Cyprus was hit overnight and two further drones heading its way were intercepted today — although U.K. officials are unsure whether the base is an Iranian target or is being caught up in crossfire.

*This is not what Labour MPs wanted to hear: *Starmer said the Commons will get a vote on “offensive” U.K. armed forces action — not “defensive” action. Expect that one to come up at PLP.

On the ground: In the past hour Trump said from the White House that the U.S. continues to carry out “large-scale combat operations” in Iran. He told CNN this afternoon a “big wave” of strikes is still to come. The Israelis have launched strikes in Beirut and Southern Lebanon while the Iranians struck a gas plant in Qatar. Kuwait managed to shoot down three U.S. fighter jets — although all crew managed to eject. British government officials reckon Iran can maintain its current approach to the conflict for about a week.

Still stuck: The government plan for evacuating Brits stuck in the Middle East remains unclear. Officials are working with travel firms and local governments while offering consular support.

*Oil be damned: *Crude oil prices leapt this morning when financial markets opened. Iranian drones targeted a Saudi oil refinery, which the government said had halted operations as a result.

Follow all this stuff and more … on the POLITICO liveblog which is covering the conflict and political fallout in detail.

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

*WHAT KEMI WANTED TO TALK ABOUT: *War on … segregated communities! In a speech at Policy Exchange this afternoon, the Conservative leader warned separatism is on the rise because Britain has been “too complacent about our culture” and pandered to identity politics. She unveiled a commission, which will draw up a plan including an end to preferential treatment for protected characteristics in the British state (such as for hiring or procurement) and an end to promoting multiculturalism in schools, instead teaching about civic duties and British history.

NOT GOOD ENOUGH: Labour MP Emily Darlington is proposing an amendment to the new elections bill to cover various campaign loopholes the government has left out, including on social media bots, AI labelling and deepfakes, among other things. There’s also no mention in the bill about creating fake companies to peddle false claims about tactical voting.

*Speaking of shady stuff: *The British government is being urged to do way more to track flows of crypto, my colleague Mason Boycott-Owen writes, after getting his hands on a new report showing money launderers absolutely love the little magic computer coins.

*What the government wants to talk about: *Publishing its amendment this afternoon to the Crime and Policing Bill to create a new child cruelty register, covering caregiver crimes including neglect, abandonment, causing the death of a child and all child female genital mutilation offenses. Those on the register will face the same notification requirements as registered sex offenders.

*FLEXI VOTING: *People in Cambridge, North Hertfordshire and Tunbridge Wells will be able to cast their local election votes early (including over the weekend) ahead of polling day, as part of a government trial to make voting more accessible. Milton Keynes residents will meanwhile be able to vote in the city’s main shopping center, instead of at single designated polling stations. More info here.

*AND THE BIG REVEAL WAS … *Rachel Reeves knew a Labour member alleged to have expressed anti-semitic views, Reform MP Robert Jenrick revealed this morning in one of his trademark high-production vids. Labour has now suspended Arshad Khatana, so that’s a scalp for Jenrick — although a Conservative official quipped that he’d bagged little more than “a Guido story.”

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

LOTS TO SCROLL THROUGH: The 72-page government consultation on whether to ban kids from social media (plus a load of other lesser proposals) landed here.

PRIME X BEEF: Former Observer leader writer Sonia Sodha and Keir Starmer hagiographer Tom Baldwin clashing on social media was a fun one.

BEYOND THE M25

FAMILY POLITICS: Anas Sarwar said he was “embarrassed” after his father Mohammad Sarwar, a former Labour MP, described Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as a “martyr” and “strong voice of resistance.” Speaking to reporters, the Scottish Labour leader said his dad was wrong and that the killed Iranian leader was a “brutal dictator.” The Daily Record has his words.

THE OTHER WAR: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy warned Donald Trump’s actions against Iran could use up U.S.-made Patriot interceptor missiles seen as vital for protecting Ukraine. POLITICO has the latest. Zelenskyy also offered to send his best experts in shooting down Iranian drones to the Middle East if leaders can persuade Vladimir Putin to agree a month-long truce, per Bloomberg.

ATOMIC ROOSTER: President Emmanuel Macron said France would increase the size of its nuclear arsenal, calling a boost “indispensable” at a time of Russia’s invasion, China’s growing military power and changing U.S. defense priorities. My colleagues have a writeup.

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TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.), BBC News at Six and ITV Evening News (6.30 p.m.) all lead on the Middle East crisis … as does Channel 4 News (7 p.m.), which has interviews with Defence Minister Al Carns and Israeli Leader of the Opposition Yair Lapid.

Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Former U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs** Barbara A. Leaf** … former U.S. Deputy National Security Adviser James Franklin Jeffrey … former Royal United Services Institute Director General Karin von Hippel … Israeli Embassy spokesperson Alex Gandler … Labour peer and former Security Minister Alan West … author and foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall.

Kevin O’Sullivan (Talk, until 7 p.m.): The Centre for Migration Control’s Robert Bates (5.20 p.m.) … former British Ambassador to Iran Nicholas Hopton (6 p.m.).

BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Al Carns … former CIA Director David Petraeus … Resolution Foundation Chief Executive** Ruth Curtice**.

Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Al Carns … former Foreign Office Permanent Secretary Simon McDonald … Lib Dem Leader** Ed Davey … independent MP and former Labour Leader **Jeremy Corbyn … Plaid Cymru Leader Rhun Ap Iorweth … Ecotricity founder and Labour donor Dale Vince **… former Shadow Cabinet Office Minister Jonathan Ashworth**.

Dewbs and Co *(GB News, 6 p.m.): Labour MP *Barry Gardiner … Reform UK Home Affairs spokesperson Zia Yusuf.

Farage **(GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Brexit Party MEP James Glancy**.

Politics Hub (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Former National Security Adviser** Mark Lyall Grant** … former U.S. Department of Defense Middle East Adviser** Jasmine El-Gamal**.

The Evening Edition with Kait Borsay **(Times Radio, 7 p.m.): Foundation for Defense of Democracies Senior Fellow Jonathan Conricus** (7.15 p.m.) … National Union for Democracy in Iran Research Director Khosro Isfahani (8.15 p.m.).

Cross Question with Iain Dale (LBC, 8 p.m.): Labour MP Tom Hayes … Tory MP Bernard Jenkin … Reform UK London Assembly Leader** Alex Wilson** … the Lead’s Zoë Grünewald.

Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation *(GB News, 8 p.m.): Tory peer *John Redwood … former Labour MP Stephen Pound.

Patrick Christys Tonight *(GB News, 9 p.m.): Reform UK supporter and former Tory Chair *Jake Berry … Labour councilor Sebastian Salek.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: George Mann.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Sky News (10 p.m.): Former Education Secretary Gillian Keegan and the Mirror’s Kevin Maguire … Times Radio *(10.30 p.m.): *Zoë Grünewald and the FT’s George Parker.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

*LADIES’ NIGHT: *No.10 is hosting a reception this evening for International Women’s Day. Invites needed.

*POILIEVRE POPS IN: *Canada’s opposition leader Pierre Poilievre is addressing a Carlton Club reception tonight, from 6 p.m. Invites needed.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

*WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: *Its spring statement and defense manufacturing in Ukraine.

GETTING THE GANG TOGETHER: Keir Starmer holds a Cabinet meeting at 9.30 a.m.

*CABINET OF CURIOSITIES: *Cabinet Office Permanent Secretary Catherine Little and Chief Financial Officer Caroline Patterson are quizzed by the Public Administration and Constitutional Affairs Committee, from 10 a.m.

*OLD SPARRING PARTNERS: *Former Housing Secretaries Michael Gove and Angela Rayner face a grilling from the Housing, Communities and Local Government Committee about the Commonhold and Leasehold Reform Bill, from 10.55 a.m.

IN THE COMMONS: MPs wander in at 11.30 a.m. for Foreign Office questions, Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ spring statement and consideration of Lords amendments to the Sustainable Aviation Fuel Bill.

*MACHINE LEARNING: *Technology Secretary Liz Kendall gives evidence to the Lords’ Science and Technology Committee at 2 p.m.

IN THE LORDS: Peers drop in at 2.30 p.m. for the Tobacco and Vapes Bill’s second day at report stage.

*LET’S GET DIGITAL: *Home Office Minister Mike Tapp talks to the Home Affairs Committee about digital ID, from 2.30 p.m.

THREE OF SPADS: Former SpAds Ben Judah, John Bew and Munira Mirza are chatting statecraft at a Civic Future event, from 6 p.m.

*ACROSS THE POND: *The U.S. midterm primaries begin, while Donald Trump hosts German Chancellor Friedrich Merz at the White House.

ANY OTHER BUSINESS

*WHAT POLITICAL STAFFERS WANT TO TALK ABOUT: *Workers in MP offices are outraged at receiving a 3.5 percent recommended pay hike, while MPs take home a guaranteed 5 percent — taking parliamentarians’ pay to £98,600 from April. Staffers, some of whom earn less than £30,000, have spent months urging regulator IPSA to increase worker salaries amid growing caseloads and increased public abuse (both of which the watchdog acknowledges.) MPs often supported the calls for bigger staff raises.

But but but: One outraged staffer said IPSA had “completely ignored all of that and frankly made clear they basically don’t give a sh*t.” MPs are getting a 1.5 percent raise plus a 3.5 percent “cost of living uplift,” while staffers get the 3.5 percent alone (with an extra 1.5 percent for some at the bottom of their wage band.) The rise means staffers will get little-to-no extra, once inflation is accounted for — although MPs can choose to hike salaries further within a set office budget.

The IPSA line: In a message to MPs, IPSA boss Richard Lloyd said factors such as public sector salaries and wages for MPs abroad are among those taken into account when establishing the numbers. He noted that office staffing budgets have increased almost 80 percent since 2019, “a significant increase, based on demonstrable need.” But staff insist the budgets are still too small to recruit enough people on reasonable salaries to handle the workload — and questioned why growing casework was among the IPSA reasons for hiking MP salaries when it’s staff who bear its brunt.

*Ouch: *Another staffer said it was “nice and unifying when something p*sses off every single staffer in parliament.”

STEPPING BACK: West Lancashire MP Ashley Dalton resigned as a health minister to focus on her constituency duties while receiving chemotherapy treatment for breast cancer. She said it was the “right time to take the reasonable adjustments” to manage her condition and focus on being a local representative. Writing in the Times, Dalton argued “the biggest mistake anyone could make about me and my cancer is to write me off.” The PM accepted her resignation “with great sadness” and hailed an “exemplary minister.”

*A NEW DAWN HAS BROKEN, HAS IT NOT? *Westminster tube station Pret is set to open on Wednesday this week.

SPOTTED: Green Leader Zack Polanski in parliament — grabbing three vegan sausages and two hash browns, according to Guido. Ex-Labour MP turned Green supporter Lloyd Russell-Moyle was also seen hugging new MP *Hannah Spencer *in PCH.

NOW HIRING: Merlin Strategy is recruiting a graduate trainee.

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: The Fraser Nelson Substack on how Keir Starmer’s approach to supporting the U.S. with its military ventures compares with that of Margaret Thatcher.

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Jerk pork with rice and peas; steamed haddock with sautéed leeks, mash and tartare sauce; BBQ tempeh with pineapple, corn on the cob, oregano and parsley freekeh and vegan ranch dressing … The Debate: Jerk pork with rice and peas; marinated feta with eggplant and butterbean stew, parsley quinoa, pomegranate and mint … grilled turmeric tuna with spring onion and dill, rice noodles, nuoc cham vinaigrette and crushed peanuts … Terrace Cafeteria: Jerk pork with rice and peas; baked cod with cheddar and mustard rarebit, sautéed leeks and plum tomato; chickpea stew with ginger tofu, zucchini and almonds … River Restaurant: Chili, sesame tofu kebab with lime rice and coconut; cottage pie with carrots and gravy; smoked paprika coley with risotto cake and tomato fondue.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On March 2, 1807, William Cavendish-Bentinck became prime minister for the second time — 24 years after his initial 8-month stint in the role. On the same day in 1882 Queen Victoria narrowly escaped an assassination attempt.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Andrew McDonald.

THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.

CORRECTION: A previous version of this newsletter misspelled Labour MP Emily Darlington’s name.