National survey finds massive ‘partisan chasm’ on immigration

“It is especially large, in fact there’s not room for it to get much larger,” David Lazer, of Northeastern University said of the partisan gap regarding immigration policy.

A “partisan chasm” separates Democrats and Republicans over President Trump’s immigration policy, according to a recent national survey.

Specifically, 78% of Republicans approve of President Trump’s immigration policies compared with just 11% of Democrats – a 67-point difference, according to research led by Northeastern University. Independents registered 27% approval.

“It is especially large, in fact, there’s not room for it to get much larger,” said David Lazer, university distinguished professor of political science and computer sciences at Northeastern University.

The survey, which Lazer helped lead, was conducted by the Civic Health and Institutions Project (CHIP50), a 50-state survey effort that polls Americans on opinions and behaviors.

The partisan divide on immigration policy is one of several key findings in the latest survey, which included responses from 30,338 adults in the U.S. between Dec. 18 and Jan. 27.

Overall, and regardless of party affiliation, 37% of Americans approve of Trump’s handling of immigration policy, compared with 49% who disapprove.

The stark partisan divide extended to immigration enforcement measures, the survey found:

• There was a 60-percentage-point partisan gap in how people viewed Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), with 69% of Republicans approving of the agency’s enforcement measures compared with 9% of Democrats. Nationally, 33% said they approve of ICE’s tactics, with 18% strongly approving.

• ICE workplace raids were favorably viewed by 31% of respondents overall, including by 62% of Republicans versus 13% of Democrats.

• A similar 50-point partisan spread appeared when evaluating whether to use the military to assist with mass deportations. Thirty-four percent overall — 64% of Republicans compared to 15% of Democrats — approve of the policy.

“Immigration has become an issue where Republicans and Democrats occupy fundamentally opposed positions, with partisan identity serving as the primary organizing principle for attitudes, the report said. “The consistency of these massive partisan gaps … indicates these divisions reflect deep structural partisan differences.”

The area where there was most agreement was on the issue of birthright citizenship, the Fourteenth Amendment principle that children born in the United States automatically become citizens. This policy was embraced by 59% of Americans, including 79% of Democrats, 59% of Independents and 39% of Republicans.

But the survey looked at more than just political affiliation. Researchers also analyzed patterns across six other demographic categories: race/ethnicity, gender, age, education, income and urban-rural residence.

What the survey called “personal stakes” related to immigration varied dramatically by race and gender.

According to the survey:

• Forty-two percent of Hispanic Americans surveyed worried about the deportation of a family member or close friend compared to 28% of respondents who are Black, 36% of those who are Asian American, and 20% of those who are white.
• Among Hispanic Americans in the survey, 31% reported personally knowing someone undocumented – more than double the 15% reported by white respondents. Meanwhile, 12% of Black Americans reported knowing undocumented people as did 18% of Asian Americans.
• Men approved of Trump immigration policies more than women, with 45% of men approving (27% of whom approved strongly) and 30% of women (17% strongly) saying the same.

Overall, 24% of respondents expressed concern that a family member or close friend could be deported, and 17% of those surveyed personally know an undocumented immigrant, according to the survey.

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In contrast to the partisan gaps on enforcement attitudes, partisan differences on knowing undocumented immigrants is “modest,” the report said. Eighteen percent of Democrats reported knowing an undocumented immigrant, as did 16% of Republicans and 16% of Independents.

Analyzing the data by focusing on income and education levels also revealed an unexpected counternarrative to the immigration debate.

“One narrative around immigration is that support for more aggressive policies would come from people with lower income levels and lower education because immigration is potentially affecting their salaries and creating competition in the labor market,” Lazer said. “But not only [do we not] find that, we actually find the opposite.”

For instance, Trump’s handling of immigration is viewed favorably by 30% of those making less than $25,000 a year, while 52% of the respondents in that income bracket disapproved. Among the highest earners (those who make more than $100,000 annually) meanwhile, approval of the president’s handling of immigration rose to 46% while 44% disapproved.

When it came to education, 30% of those with some high school or less approved of Trump’s handling of immigration, while 49% disapproved. Meanwhile, 43% percent of those with a graduate degree approved, while 47% disapproved.

Responses by age also revealed a “huge generational divide,” Lazer said.

“What you’re seeing is more affluent, older, whiter people are more supportive of Trump’s policy of more aggressive enforcement action while the less white, younger, less affluent, less educated are less supportive,” Lazer said.

That generational divide also marks a reverse from electoral trends just over a year earlier – underscoring how consequential immigration has become politically.

“Trump got elected in part because he had the most racially diverse Republican coalition in recent memory,” Lazer said.

He noted that in the 2024 election, young people swung toward Trump “in a dramatic way,” and less educated and less affluent voters also swung toward the president.

But, “All of these demographics that swung towards him are now really unhappy with his immigration policy,” Lazer said. “These are [the] demographics that our data show have swung sharply away from Trump.”