No, Trump’s Tariffs Are Tanking The Economy, Not Boosting It

President Trump’s trade agenda is selling a fantasy. United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer told Congress that the administration’s tariffs are “working” and helping the US economy. But the cold, hard facts reveal a very different story — one of economic damage, not recovery.

Manufacturing, the sector tariffs were supposed to rescue, is in trouble. Instead of booming, factories shed 88,000 jobs year-over-year in 2025, and productivity actually collapsed in the last quarter of the year. If tariffs were boosting manufacturing, we would see the opposite trend. Instead, surveys show manufacturers overwhelmingly view tariffs as a negative force, with no positive sentiment reported. The industry is not calling for more tariffs — it’s calling for relief.

Consumers and businesses are paying the price for this misguided policy. Research from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows importers have absorbed 90% of the tariffs’ costs, and a quarter of those costs have been passed on to shoppers at the retail level. Higher prices for imported goods and domestic alternatives slow the economy by squeezing spending power, not just in manufacturing but across the service sectors too.

Economic modeling from the Tax Foundation predicts that, in the long run, these tariffs will shrink GDP and leave the US economy smaller than if the trade war had never started. Early data from 2025 backs this up: real GDP growth slowed to 2.1% from 2.8% the previous year, and real final sales to domestic purchasers declined steadily — the opposite of what a successful tariff policy would produce.

Greer points to new trade and investment deals as proof that tariffs are extracting concessions from US partners. But these deals are largely empty promises — frameworks without enforcement, not ratified by any legislature, and lacking real teeth. Foreign direct investment actually fell in 2025, with most of what did come being reinvested earnings rather than fresh capital.

If tariffs remain, supply chains might shift back to the US, but at a steep cost: higher prices for businesses and consumers, and damaged credibility on the world stage. Meanwhile, the global economy is moving forward with AI and emerging technologies, while Trump’s trade policy clings to outdated tactics from nearly a century ago.

The takeaway is clear: tariffs are not strengthening the economy. They are a costly drag that hurts workers, consumers, and manufacturers alike. Ending the trade war and lifting tariffs should be an urgent priority if America wants to compete in the 21st century economy — not double down on policies that hold it back.