One Nation’s Surge in Farrer By-Election Threatens Coalition’s Future
One Nation’s near 40% primary vote in the Farrer by-election has exposed a dire warning for the Liberal and National Parties. With the Coalition’s traditional stronghold collapsing, the question is whether these parties can survive politically or will be eclipsed by the rising populist right before the next federal election.
The Farrer by-election results delivered a political earthquake for Australia’s Coalition. One Nation, the far-right populist party, scored almost 40% of the primary vote, while the Liberal Party’s support plummeted by three-quarters compared to the previous election, and the Nationals barely scraped 10%. This seat has been a Coalition fortress for eight decades — now it’s a warning sign flashing red.
Labor’s strategic absence from the by-election leaves a clear picture: the Coalition is not just losing votes, it’s hemorrhaging them to One Nation. The Nationals’ traditional rural base is eroding fast, and the Liberals are struggling to maintain relevance in regional strongholds. If this trend spreads, the Nationals could be reduced to a rump faction in the House of Representatives, and rural Liberals face a similar existential threat.
One Nation’s rise is more than a nuisance for the Coalition — it’s a fundamental challenge to their political survival. While Labor has built its House of Representatives strength by dominating urban seats, the Coalition’s path back to power depends on reclaiming those same areas. The question now is whether the Liberals and One Nation will cooperate, compete, or carve up preferences in a way that reshapes future elections.
Looking back to the 2001 Queensland election offers a chilling parallel. Then, a scandal-ridden Labor government called a snap election and used the chaos among conservative parties to secure a landslide victory. Labor’s “Who’s driving” campaign ad mocked the disarray of their opponents and helped deliver a decisive win. The Coalition today faces a similar moment of reckoning.
The Farrer by-election is not just a local contest — it’s a bellwether for the next federal election and the future of Australia’s conservative politics. The Coalition can either confront the threat posed by One Nation head-on or risk being sidelined by a populist insurgency that could redefine the political landscape. The clock is ticking.
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