Pentagon Pizza Index ties pizza spikes to military action | The Jerusalem Post

AMICHAI STEIN

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has made his position on military fitness clear. He has no patience for "fat troops" or unready formations.

"It's tiring to look out at combat formations and see fat troops," Hegseth recently remarked. "Likewise, it's completely unacceptable to see fat generals and admirals in the halls of the Pentagon."

Yet for intelligence analysts and open-source intelligence (OSINT) enthusiasts - and particularly observers in Iran - the dietary habits of those Pentagon generals may signal something else entirely. Specifically, their late-night junk food orders are viewed by some as an indicator of impending US military action.

The theory is known as the "Pentagon Pizza Index" (PPI). It suggests that sudden spikes in pizza deliveries to US government buildings in Washington, particularly the White House and Pentagon, correlate with imminent military operations.

The legend dates to the 1980s. In 1983, on the eve of the US invasion of Grenada, and again in 1989 before the invasion of Panama to capture dictator Manuel Noriega, Washington-area pizzerias reportedly experienced unusually high demand.

The pattern became more widely discussed during the buildup to the first Gulf War in 1991. Frank Meeks, who owned more than 40 Domino's Pizza franchises in the Washington area at the time, told the Los Angeles Times that while news organizations might be asleep at 2 a.m., his delivery drivers were not.

"The PPI is a phenomenon online that claims the activity of certain pizza parlors around the Pentagon or around other buildings in Washington indicates that there's an international crisis or some kind of military action that's forthcoming," Marcel Plichta, a research fellow at the Center for Global Law and Governance at the University at St Andrews, told The Jerusalem Post.

According to the theory, when lights remain on at the Pentagon and in the White House Situation Room, staff cannot leave for dinner. As a result, pizza orders increase.

Supporters of PPI argue that it has remained relevant through major operations, including the killing of Osama bin Laden and the operation to capture Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro and his wife. It has also been linked to operations involving Israel.

Hours before the Israeli airstrikes on Iran in June 2025, observers again pointed to unusual activity. The PPI monitoring account on X/Twitter noted that almost all pizzerias in Washington experienced a spike in activity during the overnight between June 12 and June 13.

"When there was action, for instance, when there was conflict between Israel and Iran or involving the United States, they would notice that during that period Google would say there was increased activity at these pizza parlors," Plichta said.

Pentagon official: Pizza index is "fake, but funny"

Despite the lore, Pentagon leadership remains skeptical. "It's fake, but funny," a former senior Pentagon official told the Post.

When asked about the reliability of fast food as a geopolitical barometer, Hegseth dismissed the idea and suggested he might use it to wage psychological warfare on OSINT trackers. "Next time there's going to be an airstrike, have you guys thought about maybe just going to the cafeteria?" Hegseth was asked.

"I've thought of just ordering lots of pizza on random nights just to throw everybody off. Some Friday night, when you see a bunch of Domino's orders, it might just be me on an app throwing the whole system off," he responded.

The methodology has evolved beyond pizza. Plitcha notes that some analysts now track what they call the "Bar Index," monitoring foot traffic data at nightlife venues in the Washington area to see whether staffers are absent from their usual gathering spots.

"They pull in data from like gay bars or local bars in the area out of the belief that it gives a fuller picture of what's happening," he said.

However, relying on fast food and nightlife data carries risks, he cautioned. "You see consistent spikes around meal times and around holidays that can sometimes read as a false positive. It's very easy to get confused by the data and think that there's greater activity than there actually is."

Yet, PPI remains a popular tool among online observers attempting to anticipate potential military action involving Tehran or Baghdad. But under the Trump administration, analysts may find that tracking US President Donald Trump's social media feed proves a more accurate metric than monitoring late-night food deliveries.