Prelude to the 2026 Iran conflict

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Tensions between Iran and the United States over Iran's nuclear program began to intensify in January 2026 amid Iran's ongoing massacres of Iranian civilians following the 2025–2026 Iranian protests. [1] The United States began amassing air and naval assets in the region at a level not seen since the outset of the

2003 invasion of Iraq. The U.S. government signaled that airstrikes remained an option, emphasizing that all responses were under consideration while maintaining that diplomacy was still preferred.

Regional actors, including

[2]Qatar, cautioned that any escalation could have severe consequences for the

Middle East.

Negotiations regarding the Iranian nuclear programwere held in February, on 28 February 2026 the United States and Israel conducted

military strikes in Iran. Several

Iranian leaders were killed in the strikes;

early on 1 March, Iranian state media confirmed that Supreme Leader

[3]Ali Khamenei had been killed, and declared 40 days of mourning and a 7-day national holiday.

[4]

[5]## Background

Anti-government protests in Iran

Beginning in late December 2025, massive nationwide anti-regime protests erupted in Iran, driven largely by economic crisis, the collapse of the rial, and rising prices. The protests, which included calls for regime change, became the largest in scale since the 1979 revolution, [6] spreading to over 100 cities across the country.

The Iranian regime responded with violent repression, including

[7]massacres of protesters, with the deadliest incidents occurring on 8 and 10 January 2026.

Supreme Leader

[8]Ali Khameneipersonally ordered the nationwide killings during the protests with the approval of Iran's top state bodies.

[9]The violence was carried out mainly by the

[10]IRGCand

Basijforces,

[9]who used live ammunition, shotguns, pellet guns, mounted machine guns, and drones. Witnesses reported blood-covered streets, widespread injuries, while hospitals and morgues were overwhelmed.

[8]Iran also imposed the longest

[8]internet blackouton record to restrict reporting on the unrest and the killings, and disrupt communication among demonstrators.

US-based

[11]Human Rights Activists News Agency(HRANA) estimated the death toll at 7,000, the Iranian government said the death toll was 3,117, while Donald Trump and others said the death toll was 32,000 people.

According to HRANA, at least 26,541 people were detained.

[12]

[13]International Centre for Human Rightssaid the death toll was 43,000.

[14]During a news briefing on 27 February 2026, US president Trump stated that the Islamic Republic "killed at least, it looks like, 32,000 protesters,"

[15]

[16]

[17]a similar figure to the earlier estimated death toll of approximately 30,000 by two senior officials in the Iranian ministry of health.

[18]

[18]AP News reported that the government's overwhelming use of violence had caused despair among the Iranian public and had given rise to hopes for an American attack.

[14]

[19]Several scholars have argued that the Iranian regime now faces a fragile state that could lead to its demise. [20] According to

, Iran's leadership, having resorted to violence to maintain power, may be at a breaking point.

The EconomistIran's exiled Crown Prince

[21]Reza Pahlavi, who has become a symbolic figure for protesters with many chanting his name, has called for the removal of the Islamic Republic and the establishment of a democratic government through free elections.

He has also urged President Trump to carry out targeted strikes on the Iranian regime's paramilitary forces to weaken its capacity to suppress protests and hasten the regime's collapse.

[7]

[22]On 13 January 2026, US president Donald Trump called Iranians to "keep protesting" and to "take over your institutions," adding that "help is on its way." [11] In later remarks, he told Iranians to remember "the names of the killers and the abusers," warning that those responsible would "pay a very big price."

[11]### US military buildup and US–Iran negotiations

On 23 January, Trump announced that a US "armada" was heading to the Middle East, including the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and several guided-missile destroyers. [13] On the same day, it was reported that Khamenei had taken shelter in a

Tehranbunker, while global protests in support of Iranian demonstrators were planned and airlines canceled flights to the region;

UN Human Rights Commissioner

Volker Türkcondemned the killings, forced confessions, and lack of transparency, and called for an end to executions.

The Global Centre for the

[23]Responsibility to protecthas identified that the Iranian population is at significant risk of mass atrocity crimes.

US and European officials say Washington has presented Iran with three core demands: a permanent end to all uranium enrichment, strict limits on Iran's ballistic missile program, and a complete halt to support for regional proxy groups such as

[24]Hamas,

Hezbollah, and the

Houthis.

[25]On 6 February 2026, Iran and the US held indirect nuclear negotiations in Oman's capital, Muscat. Iran emphasized that progress depended on consultations back in capitals. [26] A second round of nuclear talks was scheduled in Geneva.

In early February 2026, the US also deployed a second aircraft carrier,

[26]USS Gerald R. Ford, to the Middle East to increase pressure on Iran.

On 11 February 2026, the 47th anniversary of the 1979 revolution was marked by pro-government rallies and strong

[27]anti-American rhetoric.

[28]On 13 February 2026, US president Donald Trump stated that regime change in Iran would be "the best thing that could happen." [29] A day later, on 14 February, US officials told

Reutersthat the US military was preparing for weeks-long sustained operations against Iran.

[30]On 24 February 2026, during a State of the Union speech, Trump accused Iran, which he called "the world's number one sponsor of terror”, of reviving efforts to build nuclear weapons. He described Iran's ambitions as "sinister" and warned that Iran had also developed increasingly advanced missile capabilities "that can threaten Europe and our bases overseas, and they're working to build missiles that will soon reach the United States of America." He warned that the US was prepared to act if necessary.[31]

United States buildup

US Government approach

In the period following 13 January, the United States adopted a more assertive public posture toward Iran while continuing to emphasize that it sought to avoid direct conflict. Senior officials within the Trump administration issued a series of statements outlining Washington's position. President Donald Trump reiterated that the United States was prepared to respond to any actions perceived as threatening U.S. personnel or regional stability, while also stating that military force would be used only if necessary. His remarks framed the situation as a test of deterrence, emphasizing that Iran would be held accountable for further escalation.[32]

The US Secretary of state Marco Rubio underscored this approach by calling on Iran to halt its crackdown on domestic protests and to comply with international obligations. In public briefings, the Secretary described Iran's internal unrest as evidence of widespread dissatisfaction and urged Tehran to "choose de‑escalation" through diplomatic channels. The National Security Advisor similarly warned that the United States would not tolerate attacks on its regional partners or interests, calling out Iran's actions as destabilizing and inconsistent with international norms.[33]

Congressional debates

The escalation in U.S.–Iran tensions after 13 January prompted extensive debate within the United States Congress, where lawmakers expressed differing views on the appropriate scope and direction of U.S. policy. Members of Congress who favored a more assertive approach argued that Iran's regional activities and domestic repression required stronger deterrence measures. These legislators supported maintaining or expanding sanctions, increasing military readiness in the region, and issuing clear warnings that attacks on U.S. personnel or allies would result in a forceful response. They contended that a firm posture was necessary to prevent further escalation and to counter what they viewed as destabilizing behavior by Iran.[34]

Some bipartisan lawmakers advocated for a more restrained strategy, emphasizing the risks of miscalculation and the potential for unintended conflict. These members called for renewed diplomatic engagement, greater transparency regarding the administration's decision‑making, and adherence to congressional oversight mechanisms related to the use of military force. Some raised concerns about the legal basis for any potential military action, citing the need for updated authorizations and clearer definitions of U.S. objectives. They argued that sustained diplomatic efforts, rather than increased military pressure, offered the best path to reducing tensions and addressing long‑standing disputes.[35]

No clear consensus emerged.[36]

Diplomacy

Further U.S. policy discussions after 13 January also focused on the security of American personnel and facilities across the Middle East. The Department of Defense reviewed force protection measures at bases in Iraq, Syria, and the Gulf, citing concerns about potential retaliation from Iranian‑aligned groups. Pentagon officials emphasized that any attack on U.S. forces would prompt a direct response, reflecting a broader effort to deter proxy activity without escalating into open conflict. Analysts noted that these measures were consistent with previous periods of heightened tension, during which the United States sought to balance deterrence with the risk of miscalculation.[37]

At the diplomatic level, the United States intensified consultations with European and regional partners to coordinate messaging and assess potential avenues for de‑escalation. American diplomats engaged with NATO allies, Gulf Cooperation Council members, and other partners to reinforce shared concerns about Iran's internal repression and regional activities. These discussions aimed to maintain a unified international stance while exploring options for renewed dialogue. Despite these efforts, progress remained limited, as longstanding disagreements over sanctions, nuclear policy, and regional security continued to shape the broader context of U.S.–Iran relations.[38]

Military buildup

On 13 January, senior national security officials met at the White House to review potential military options, including airstrikes, cyber operations, and targeted raids, as part of the administration's response to Iran's violent suppression of demonstrations.[39][40]

Abraham Lincolnin the Arabian Sea on 3 February 2026

Abraham Lincolnon 3 February 2026

The U.S. military began repositioning assets to strengthen its regional posture. By 25 January, an American aircraft carrier strike group, the USS Abraham Lincoln was deployed toward the Gulf, accompanied by additional Navy and Air Force assets. This movement was described as a precautionary measure amid fears of further escalation and was part of a broader effort to deter Iranian actions.

[41]

[42]

[43]

Throughout late January, President Donald Trump continued to weigh expanded military options. Reports on 29–30 January indicated that he had been presented with additional plans, including possible commando operations targeting Iranian nuclear facilities. These deliberations occurred alongside ongoing concerns about Iran's mass arrests and internal unrest, which U.S. officials cited as contributing factors in the heightened military readiness.[39]

On 14 February, Trump stated he will dispatch a second carrier strike, the USS Gerald R. Ford, will be on the way to the Middle East with

Carrier Strike Group 12after completing operations in the

Caribbeanas part of

Operation Southern Spearto support the USS Abraham Lincoln. Arrival of the USS Gerald R. Ford marked the new height in deployment of U.S. Navy assets during the

Middle Eastern crisis.

[44]

[41]Top administration national security officials met on 18 February in the White House Situation Room to discuss the situation in Iran, a person familiar with the meeting said. Trump was also briefed that day by special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about their indirect talks with Iran that occurred a day earlier. It was not clear if Trump would make a decision by 21 or 22 February.[45]

On the same day, anonymous sources informed CNN that the US military was prepared to strike Iran as early as 21 February, although President Trump had yet to make a final decision on whether he would authorize such actions. One source, however, cautioned that Trump had privately argued both for and against military action and, polling advisers and allies on what the best course of action is.

On 19 February 2026, according to reports The US could launch military strikes on Iran within days as the White House issued a warning that Tehran should make a deal. Trump sent warships, tankers and submarines to the Middle East to be ready for potential strikes as early as 21 February, sources told CBS.

Threatening speeches and posts

In the final week of January, President Donald Trump used Truth Social to issue a series of public warnings directed at Iran, marking one of the most visible escalations in U.S. messaging during the crisis. On 28 January 2026, Trump declared that "a massive Armada is heading to Iran", describing it as moving "with great power, enthusiasm, and purpose." Trump warned that if Iran did not agree to a deal, "the next attack will be far worse", referencing previous U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.[46][47]

Several of the posts referenced previous U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites which Trump cited as evidence of Washington's willingness to act if necessary. He warned that any further escalation by Iran could prompt a more severe response, presenting the situation as a narrowing window for Tehran to alter its course.[48]

When speaking at Fort Bragg on 13 February, Trump declared that regime change would be "the best thing that could happen".[49]

Trump said on a post on Truth Social, when referring to the Chagos dispute, UK air bases at RAF Fairford and the shared base at Diego Garcia in the British Indian Ocean Territory would be used by the US in an attack on Iran should Iran not agree to a nuclear deal.[50] [51] However, the United Kingdom has reportedly blocked Trump's request to use their air bases, leading to the latter withdrawing his support for the Chagos Islands deal.

[52]While some US sources, including Senator Lindsey Graham, told Axios that the US might need more time to prepare on 18 February, others disagreed. "The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks," one anonymous Trump advisor told Axios. United States officials stated that Iran has two weeks to submit a detailed proposal.[53]

President Trump said that he is prepared to decide whether to attack Iran within the next 10 days — after deploying a second carrier strike group led by the USS Gerald R. Ford to the Middle East. "We may have to take it a step further, or we may not. Maybe we're going to make a deal. You are going to be finding out over the next, probably, 10 days," Trump said at a meeting of the Board of Peace in Washington.[54]

Iranian buildup

Verbal response

Senior Iranian officials dismissed U.S. warnings as psychological warfare and accused Washington of exploiting Iran's domestic unrest for strategic gain. Government spokespeople reiterated that Iran would not alter its policies under foreign pressure and warned that any military action by the United States would be met with what they described as a "decisive" and "regret‑inducing" response. These statements were accompanied by assurances that Iran's armed forces remained fully prepared to counter external threats. [55] Iran has threatened the U.S. in comments made by officials such as Ali Khamenei.

Attempts to control protests

Iranian authorities intensified efforts to control the internal situation. Security forces expanded their presence in major cities, and state media portrayed the protests as foreign‑influenced attempts to destabilize the country. Officials framed the unrest as part of a broader campaign orchestrated by hostile governments, arguing that the United States and Israel was using the demonstrations to justify increased military pressure.[56]

Diplomatic response

Diplomatically, Iran maintained that it remained open to dialogue but insisted that any negotiations must respect its sovereignty and security interests. Iranian representatives criticized U.S. sanctions and military deployments as provocative and counterproductive, urging regional states to avoid aligning with what Tehran described as destabilizing American policies. On 31 January, top Iranian security official Ali Larijani said on X that work on a framework for negotiations with the United States is progressing.[57]

Military and movements

Iranian state media reported increased activity among the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including the repositioning of units responsible for air defense, missile operations, and internal security. Analysts noted that these movements were consistent with Iran's standard response during periods of heightened tension, aimed at demonstrating preparedness without provoking direct confrontation.[58]

Iran also conducted limited military exercises in several regions, emphasizing missile capabilities and rapid‑deployment forces. These drills were framed by Iranian officials as routine but were widely interpreted as a message to external actors, particularly the United States, that Iran retained the capacity to respond to any attack. Satellite imagery during this period indicated heightened activity at several IRGC bases, including the movement of mobile missile launchers and increased aircraft dispersal at military airfields, measures typically associated with efforts to reduce vulnerability to potential strikes.[59]

Naval forces in the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz also began movements. The IRGC Navy increased patrols and monitored U.S. naval movements closely, while Iranian officials reiterated that the country would defend its territorial waters against any perceived encroachment. Although no direct confrontations were reported, the combination of heightened naval activity, missile readiness, and internal security deployments contributed to a broader atmosphere of military alertness within Iran during the late‑January escalation.[60]

On 3 February 2026, six IRGC Navy gunboats attempted to stop and seize a US tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. The Stena Imperative tanker ignored their demands and continued toward the Arabian Sea under the escort of the USS McFaul (DDG 74). Moreover, a US F-35 fighter jet shot down an Iranian Shahed 139 drone approaching the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln.

[61]

[62]On 5 February, Iran's IRGC Navy announced it had seized two foreign oil tankers near Farsi Island in the Persian Gulf and transferred them to the port of Bushehr, claiming both vessels were involved in fuel smuggling operations.

During the second round of nuclear talks in Geneva on 17 February, Khamenei threatened the United States warships in the area, stating Iran is "capable of sinking...[them]." [63] In addition the

Strait of Hormuzwas closed for several hours during a live military fire drill.

Khamenei said that even though the US military may be the strongest in the world, "the strongest army in the world can sometimes be slapped so hard it cannot get up."

[64]Reuters reported on 24 February that the Iran military officials were finalizing the negotiation to acquire CM-302 anti-cruise missiles from China, which would pose the greatest threats to the US naval force deployed in the area.[65]

Proxies responses and other allied responses

Abu Hussein al‑Hamidawi, the leader of Kata'ib Hezbollah, an Iraqi group part of the Popular Mobilization Forces, reaffirmed its support for Iran, warning of a "total war" if Iran is attacked by the U.S.[66]

The leader of Hezbollah made a statement saying that they will choose whether or not to intervene, and is "concerned" about confronting the U.S. He said that he is "not neutral".[67]

The Taliban-led Afghanistan called on both sides to peacefully resolve their differences, adding that that they would support Iran if the U.S. attacks it.[68][69]

Negotiations

On 13 October 2025, President Trump stated that the United States was ready to reach an agreement with Iran and expressed optimism that a deal could be achieved. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said that Iran would consider any proposal that was “fair and balanced,” though no concrete framework had been presented and contacts were conducted through intermediaries.[70] [71] Despite the conciliatory tone, major obstacles remained, including earlier U.S. demands that Iran dismantle its nuclear and

ballistic missile programs, which Iran had previously rejected.

[72]

[73]

[74]On 6 February 2026, the United States and Iran held indirect talks in Muscat, Oman, mediated by Omani foreign minister Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi. The nuclear-focused discussions were described as a "good start", and both sides agreed to continue engagement despite deep mistrust. [75] However, senior U.S. officials expressed skepticism about the prospects for a deal,

[75]while Iranian hardliners criticized the negotiations.

[76]

[77]On 25 February 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi stated that a "historic opportunity" to reach a nuclear agreement with the United States was "within reach" to avert military conflict, ahead of scheduled talks in Geneva. Araghchi emphasized on social media that diplomacy must be prioritized to avoid further escalation, while reiterating Iran's position against developing nuclear weapons and defending its right to peaceful nuclear technology.[78]

A third round of indirect talks took place in Geneva on 26 February, where reports indicated the sides remained far from agreement. [79] On 20 February, President Trump issued a 10-day deadline for a deal,

and on 28 February, following unsatisfactory results in the third round of negotiations,

[80]U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iran began.

[81]

[82]## See also

Reactions to the 2025–2026 Iranian protestsOperation Southern Spear2025 United States strikes on Iranian nuclear sites2026 United States intervention in VenezuelaGreenland crisis2026 Cuban crisis2026 Iran conflict

Notes

References

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