State of the Union: Donald Trump faces anxious audience of Republicans

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Good morning and welcome to White House Watch. In today’s edition, we’ll be looking at:

Republican anxiety ahead of Trump’s State of the Union

Supreme Court tariff ruling fallout

How Trump has boxed himself in on Iran

Donald Trump will be cheered and revered by Republicans in Congress tonight when he delivers his State of the Union speech. But under the surface, the 79-year-old president is facing a far more anxious audience within his own party than at any point in his second term.

The broadest concern among Republicans is that Trump is losing touch with the American public — a remarkable charge for a populist leader who won two presidential elections by tapping into the grievances of ordinary Americans.

But it is a similar dynamic to Trump’s first term in office, when he lost both the 2018 midterm elections and the 2020 race against Joe Biden as Americans soured on his performance in the Oval Office and his erratic and chaotic leadership.

In the past few weeks, Trump has been battling the fallout from the Jeffrey Epstein disclosures, concerns about over-reach on immigration enforcement and a lack of focus on the economy, and most recently, a damning Supreme Court ruling on trade. Meanwhile, he continues to be consumed by foreign policy, from Venezuela to Greenland and now Iran — tearing him away from the kitchen-table issues that he promised to resolve on the campaign trail.

“The voter today is very interested in gas prices and grocery prices and first-time home buyers being 40 years old. I don’t think they’re as interested in Greenland . . . or Iran or foreign wars,” one Republican senator told reporters this month.

Trump’s polling numbers have continued to languish, with little more than eight months to go before the midterm elections. According to the RealClearPolitics average, nearly 56 per cent of US adults disapprove of his performance as president, a yawning gap compared with the almost 43 per cent who approve. Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the Cook Political Report, noted that the president’s support had nearly evaporated among one of his core constituencies — the white working-class voter.

Critics say that Trump’s handling of the files relating to Epstein exposes how insular the White House is becoming. After initially resisting their publication, the Department of Justice was forced to relent under pressure from internal Maga critics such as Kentucky Republican Thomas Massie and Marjorie Taylor Greene, who resigned from Congress at the start of the year amid a spat with the president.

Now released, the documents have offered new glimpses of Trump’s own past ties to Epstein, as well as additional revelations about high-ranking administration officials, from commerce secretary Howard Lutnick to US ambassador to Turkey Thomas Barrack, to Mehmet Oz, the head of government healthcare programmes.

“The incoherence and incompetence on Epstein is a fruit of Donald Trump not having people around him who are able to challenge him,” says Chris Stirewalt, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, a centre-right think-tank.

Republican pollster Jim McLaughlin says there’s still time for Trump to right the ship: “The cost of living, we are getting it under control. But it is going to take time.”

“The thing is, the election is not tomorrow,” he said. “The election is going to be in November. The American people are willing to give [Trump] the benefit of the doubt.”

But others are not so sure. Kevin Cramer, the senator from North Dakota, recently told the FT that Republicans could be their own “worst enemy” and needed to be more focused.

“The heart and soul of the American voter comes and goes on a weekly basis. Most of how they feel about us . . . we can control, but it requires a little bit of discipline.”

With Trump, that may be a tall order. On Monday, he suggested his speech to Congress would be the opposite of short and to the point.

“It’s going to be a long speech,” Trump said at a White House event. “Because we have so much to talk about.”

The latest headlines

Donald Trump is implementing

a new global tariff at 10 per centrather than the 15 per cent rate announced at the weekend after his defeat at the Supreme Court, according to a notice from the US customs agency.Russia is

“playing games”and is not serious about ending the war, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told the FT.US employment

probably fell in 2025, according to projections by a top Federal Reserve official.A US agency sued a Coca-Cola bottling company

for discriminationover a networking event it held for female employees at a casino resort, as the Trump administration cracks down on corporate diversity initiatives.Officials working with Trump’s “Board of Peace” are exploring setting up a

stablecoin for Gaza.

What we’re hearing

Trump is facing the biggest national security decision of his second term — whether to launch new strikes against Iran and plunge the US into a new Middle Eastern conflict.

But with a new round of talks between his top lieutenants Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner with Iranian officials set for Thursday in Geneva, and the US military build-up continuing in the region, it looks like Trump has boxed himself into a very difficult position.

“He has put himself in a situation where unless he manages to extract a considerable concession from the Iranians to avoid a war he doesn’t want, he’s going to be forced into one,” said Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. “This is a crisis of his own making.”

Last week, Trump said Iran had a “maximum” of 15 days to reach an agreement or face dire consequences from the US. But in a new twist, some US media outlets reported that General Dan Caine, the chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and top military adviser, has been highlighting the risks of potential strikes on Iran in internal discussions.

Trump lashed out at the articles on Monday in a Truth Social post.

“General Caine, like all of us, would like not to see War but, if a decision is made on going against Iran at a Military level, it is his opinion that it will be something easily won,” Trump wrote.

A spokesperson for Caine did not deny that he had discussed the risks of a new US military operation in Iran, however.

“The chairman provides a range of military options, as well as secondary considerations and associated impacts and risks, to the civilian leaders who make America’s security decisions. The chairman provides these options confidentially,” the spokesperson said.

A senior defence official added that “certain reporting falsely misrepresents General Caine and his role to drive an agenda”, but did not say he didn’t warn of the risks associated with Iran strikes.

Viewpoints

Who are Trump’s truth-tellers, asks Edward Luce in his latest column. When it comes to the cabinet, that question is rhetorical. But there are signs of

institutional pushback, he argues.Trump’s new “cancel culture”shows how his administration is targeting journalists and political opponents, writes Guy Chazan.US trade enforcement has

not been weakened, just “recalibrated”, says White House adviser Peter Navarro.What’s behind Trump’s truce with China? Allies are trying to work out if the administration is

pursuing a tactical détente.America is becoming a

petrostate, argues Rana Foroohar.Western democracies need a

strategy to engage with the Board of Peace,says the FT’s editorial board.