The Big Four's rocky March - Punchbowl News

*Welcome back, *everyone — sort of. The massive winter storm slamming the East Coast has disrupted the congressional schedule. Votes are postponed until Tuesday in both the House and Senate. The State of the Union address is Tuesday night. We’ll have a special edition out to preview President *Donald Trump’s *speech.

It’s the final week of February, with 253 days to Election Day. The central players of the Punchbowl News universe — Speaker Mike Johnson, *Senate Majority Leader *John Thune, *House Minority Leader *Hakeem Jeffries *and Senate Minority Leader *Chuck Schumer **— **face a daunting set of legislative crises. Let’s get into it.

*DHS. *The shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security has now reached 10 days with no end in sight. Senate Democrats and the White House swapped proposals to break the impasse during the recess. Yet Trump administration officials said the last Democratic offer gave them little hope for a deal to reform ICE and CBP operations.

*Trump administration officials *told us that they’re willing to codify into law many of the changes that border czar *Tom Homan *has made since taking over “Operation Metro Surge” in Minneapolis. The White House sent this one-page sheet to Republican and Democratic Hill offices on Sunday outlining how Homan has modified the controversial ICE operation. This indicates that the White House isn’t interested in moving closer toward the Democratic position at the moment.

*Democrats have been *asking for much more. Schumer and Jeffries released their 10-point plan to overhaul DHS and ICE 19 days ago. Republican congressional leaders have already rejected some of the Democrats’ central demands — a mask ban for federal officers and requiring judicial warrants for enforcement operations.

*Republicans and Democrats *keep saying they’re having good-faith talks. But all signs from top negotiators indicate that they aren’t making much progress.

*With the stunning revelation *that an ICE officer fatally shot a man in March in South Padre Island, Texas, you can bet that Democrats’ position is only going to harden.

So what’s going to unlock *this impasse? Both sides are completely comfortable in their position. There hasn’t been much public outcry about the shutdown, mostly because upwards of *90% of the department — the Transportation Security Administration, Coast Guard and the Federal Emergency Management Agency — are considered essential, meaning employees are working without pay.

*The White House *is trying to make this painful, however. Over the weekend, DHS announced that TSA PreCheck and Global Entry had been suspended. But they quickly reversed course, at least partially, following a public outcry (both programs are funded by fees), declaring TSA PreCheck would be operational. FEMA will stop non-essential work. And members of Congress won’t get their courtesy escorts through airports around the country.

*Remember that 30 million *or more people watch the State of the Union every year. So Trump has a big platform to discuss this issue.

*Iran. *Trump has amassed a huge amount of U.S. military firepower in the Gulf region, including two carrier strike groups. There are multiple reports that U.S. forces are ready to strike Iran whenever Trump orders. Talks between U.S. and Iranian officials over Iran’s nuclear weapons program will continue on Thursday.

What Trump hasn’t done is provide any clear statement on what his goals are. It’s fair to say many lawmakers in both parties are concerned. Would U.S. airstrikes be aimed solely at Iranian nuclear facilities, or is the goal to help Iranian protesters overthrow the brutal regime? Will a larger U.S. attack on Iran follow in the future? We expect Trump to discuss the Iran situation during his SOTU speech.

*Congressional votes on *an Iran war powers resolution aren’t expected until next week at the earliest. Over the weekend, Schumer and Sen. *Jack Reed *(R.I.), top Democrat on the Senate Armed Services Committee, came out against a preemptive strike on Iran.

FISA. **FISA Section 702, the federal government’s authority to surveil foreign nationals outside the United States, expires April 19. This is always a massive headache for the GOP leadership, and this year is no different. At this point, **all of the key figures in the debate are pushing for different outcomes.

*The White House *wants a clean, 18-month extension of the 702 authorities.

*House Judiciary Committee Chair Jim Jordan *(R-Ohio) has met with the White House about reforms he wants to the program. Jordan told us on Fly Out Day a few weeks ago that he is working with House Intelligence Committee Chair *Rick Crawford *(R-Ark.) on a package. But the House GOP leadership doesn’t believe that they’ll be able to find agreement. Crawford’s prickly relationship with some in the Trump administration could be an issue here.

*SCOTUS. *Tuesday and Wednesday are both decision days for the Supreme Court. Tuesday will be particularly interesting, considering that it’s the same day as the SOTU. Like everyone else, we want to see Trump and the justices in the House chamber together following last week’s presidential rant over the tariff decision.

*The big ruling *we’re waiting for is whether the high court will strike down Section Two of the Voting Rights Act. This would effectively allow red southern states to blow up their congressional maps ahead of the 2026 midterms, putting five or more minority-held seats in play.

*SAVE Act. *Thune continued to face intense pressure over the recess from conservatives who want him to embrace the so-called “talking filibuster” to pass the SAVE America Act.

*Despite all the noise, *it remains highly unlikely that the Senate will go down this path. The next few weeks will be very fraught for Thune amid conference-wide discussions about the “talking filibuster” effort, which Thune himself has warned is risky.