Trump Claims Consumer Confidence Is 'Way Up' — The Data Says Otherwise

At a recent White House small business summit, President Donald Trump confidently declared that "consumer confidence is way up." The claim was meant to showcase the strength of the economy and the popularity of his policies. But the facts tell a far less flattering story.

Three well-established measures of consumer sentiment—the University of Michigan’s monthly survey, the Conference Board’s index, and a public polling aggregation tracked by Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin—all show consumer confidence has declined during Trump’s second term. The University of Michigan’s latest reading hit 53.3, one of the lowest scores since the survey began in 1978. The Conference Board’s index dropped to 92.8 in April 2026, well below the 109.5 recorded in Biden’s final full month. Meanwhile, net approval of Trump’s handling of the economy has plunged, with disapproval outpacing approval by 24 points as of early May.

The White House pushed back by pointing to strong retail sales and consumer spending figures. Retail sales have indeed increased faster during Trump’s term compared to Biden’s last months, averaging a 3.75% year-over-year rise versus 2.47%. But this metric is not adjusted for inflation, and experts caution that higher prices—driven in part by Trump’s own tariffs—may be inflating these numbers rather than reflecting genuine consumer optimism.

More comprehensive measures like inflation-adjusted personal consumption expenditures paint a bleaker picture, showing spending has mostly fallen since Trump returned to office. Economists like Dean Baker and Douglas Holtz-Eakin emphasize that survey-based confidence and inflation-adjusted spending are more reliable indicators of economic health than raw retail sales.

In short, Trump’s boast that consumer confidence is "way up" flies in the face of multiple independent data sources. The public’s mood about the economy is souring, and approval of Trump’s economic stewardship is sinking fast. Retail sales might look robust, but the underlying reality is consumers are feeling the pinch from inflation and tariffs—two problems the Trump administration helped create.

We rate Trump’s statement False.