Trump Dangles Senate Endorsement Like a Carrot, Leaves Texas Republicans to Slug It Out

On March 4, the day after Texas Republicans failed to pick a Senate nominee outright, Donald Trump made a promise: he would endorse "soon" in the runoff between Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, and he wanted the race wrapped up quickly.

More than a month later, Trump has done exactly nothing. He blew past the deadline for candidates to drop off the May ballot. He stayed silent while Cornyn's allies begged him to intervene. And instead of picking a side, he spent his time trashing Democratic nominee James Talarico on Truth Social, calling him "the Worst candidate I have ever seen" and claiming "any human being running against him, sick, incompetent, close to death or even a child, would win."

That is a notable shift from Trump's posture the day after the primary, when he said he expected the candidate he did not endorse to drop out "for the good of the Party" and warned "We must win in November!!!" At the time, Cornyn's camp saw that as a good sign — they had been working to convince Trump that Paxton would be a liability in the general election.

But MAGA activists and Paxton supporters have spent the past five weeks loudly campaigning against a Cornyn endorsement. And according to Politico, Paxton himself was spotted discussing the runoff with Trump at a GOP fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago. Nothing says "staying neutral" like letting one candidate lobby you at your own pay-to-play resort.

Trump's silence has effectively locked in a bitter, expensive runoff. "Trump not endorsing at this point has had an impact," said John Wittman, a Republican consultant and former adviser to Gov. Greg Abbott. "And so the reality is that this is still a very close race. Paxton is probably the favorite right now, but this is absolutely a winnable race for John Cornyn."

The Pro-Cornyn Machine Reloads

After a relatively quiet post-primary period, the Cornyn forces are gearing up for round two. Texans for a Conservative Majority, the main pro-Cornyn super PAC, has begun airing new ads attacking Paxton for his ethical baggage — including alleged extramarital affairs. One ad features an AI-generated Paxton swiping on a dating app and handing cash to liberal caricatures.

Aaron Whitehead, the super PAC's executive director, said voters needed a break after $100 million in primary spending, but promised "a lot more spending" is coming. He argued that Paxton underperformed in the primary because the field was crowded and the super PAC had to spread its fire across multiple targets.

"The problem is, for Paxton, now that it's mano a mano, we get to focus on him," Whitehead said. "Only $13 million was spent on him in the primary, just because it was whack-a-mole. We had to do positive [ads], we had to hit [eventual third-place finisher] Wesley Hunt. ... Paxton already underperformed."

Paxton, meanwhile, is betting on runoff math. Runoffs typically feature lower turnout and a more conservative electorate — exactly the kind of voters who stuck with him through an impeachment trial, federal securities fraud charges, and allegations of corruption.

Speaking at CPAC in Grapevine last week, Paxton sounded confident. "We had six other people in the race — they took 18%," he said. "That 18%, we've done the analytics, more of them go to me than they do to John Cornyn. And finally, we're gonna raise more money this time. He's not going to outspend me 20 to 1."

Early polling shows Paxton with a narrow lead. Most public surveys — many conducted by Democratic groups — show him ahead by single digits. A late March poll by right-leaning Quantus Insights gave Paxton an 8-point edge. A poll from Texans for a Conservative Majority found the race tied at 45-45.

Some polling suggests a Trump endorsement for Cornyn would have limited impact anyway. And Paxton has said he is staying in the race no matter what Trump does.

Trump Undermines His Own Allies

Here is where Trump's silence gets particularly messy for Cornyn. The senator's entire pitch to Trump has been electability — that Paxton is too damaged to win a general election, and that nominating him would force national Republicans to dump resources into Texas instead of flipping seats elsewhere.

But Trump has spent the past month arguing the exact opposite. By calling Talarico the "Worst candidate" he has ever seen and suggesting Republicans could run a corpse and still win, Trump is undermining the Cornyn camp's main argument for why he should endorse their guy.

Trump claimed Republicans "allowed" Talarico to win the Democratic primary over Dallas Rep. Jasmine Crockett before "releasing the avalanche of information we had on him." Since Talarico's win, Republicans in Texas and Washington have circulated clips of the Austin lawmaker discussing race, gender, and sexuality — standard oppo research dressed up as scandal.

The Cornyn campaign, for its part, insists Talarico is a serious threat. "Democrats nominated their strongest candidate for U.S. Senate," said Matt Mackowiak, a senior adviser to Cornyn. "Texas Republicans must nominate John Cornyn, who is our strongest nominee by far to gain five new congressional seats and advance Trump's legislative agenda in the final two years of his second term. We have a plan to win the runoff and we are executing it."

Senate GOP leadership in Washington has stayed relatively quiet since the runoff began, but sources say their position has not changed: they want Cornyn, and they believe Paxton would endanger the seat.

The Mar-a-Lago Factor

Trump's inaction raises an obvious question: is he genuinely undecided, or is he just enjoying the spectacle of two Republicans tearing each other apart while one of them schmoozes him at fundraisers?

Paxton's appearance at Mar-a-Lago is a reminder that access to Trump is for sale, and that the president's endorsement decisions are often shaped less by strategy than by who flatters him most recently. Cornyn, a creature of the Senate establishment, does not have the same natural rapport with Trump that Paxton — a MAGA true believer who backed Trump's election lies and sued to overturn the 2020 results — enjoys.

The runoff is May 26. Trump could still weigh in over the next seven weeks. But every day he stays silent is a day Paxton consolidates support among the hardline conservatives who dominate runoff electorates, and a day Cornyn burns through cash trying to convince voters he is Trumpy enough.

For now, Trump seems content to let them fight it out — and maybe collect a few more checks at Mar-a-Lago along the way.