Trump disapproval climbs to 55% as Democrats hold 8-point midterm edge

(CN) — As the nation’s political focus shifts toward the midterm elections, President Donald Trump’s approval is holding at 43%, but disapproval is up to 55%, a 4-point jump since last month, according to an Emerson College poll released Thursday. At the start of his second term in January 2025, Trump’s disapproval rating began at 41%.

Emerson College began tracking Trump’s approval in January 2018. At various points during his first term, Trump’s disapproval often reached 55% or higher. His approval peaked briefly at around 49%, but he has never achieved majority support.

Throughout his first term, Trump’s average approval rating hovered around 41%, making it one of the lowest in modern U.S. presidential history. His disapproval ratings often exceeded 50%.

The latest poll was performed Feb. 21-22 among 1,000 likely voters nationwide, with nearly equal thirds representing affiliation with either Republican (33.7%), Democrat (32.1%) or independent/other parties.

Comparatively, Joe Biden’s approval in Emerson polls averaged in the low-to-mid 40s across his single term, never reaching majority sustained support after the honeymoon phase and ending notably lower than his starting point.

Following the administration’s enhanced immigration enforcement, drug interdiction strategies and military action in Venezuela, Trump’s support among Hispanic voters appears to be eroding even more rapidly. The poll found 58% of Hispanics disapprove, versus 37% who approve.

“Hispanics disapprove of the job the president is doing … a significant shift after reporting a near-split rating last month,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said in a statement. “These numbers reflect the broader downward trend previously observed among Hispanic voters.”

Such low sentiment for Trump may bite Republicans in the 2026 midterms, where the poll indicated Democrats lead the generic congressional ballot 50% to 42%, which is up 2 points from January. Independents indicated they were more likely to break toward Democratic candidates in a general election, 50% to 37%. In close races, such support can swing control of Congress.

“The Democrats are picking up points,” Kimball said in a subsequent interview Thursday. “Those undecided voters, when they’re starting to break, it looks like they’re breaking toward the left, and that would make the Democrats excited, being up 8 points at this time.”

As the administration currently grapples with the Supreme Court decision blocking Trump’s initial tariff policies, voters also reported their top concerns heading into midterms were economic issues, including cost of living, health care costs and inflation. Further down the list were deportation and border security.

“That immigration issue is something Republicans would love to make key of the midterm elections, but at this point, it’s not there,” Kimball said.

Pollsters also sought data on how voters feel about Trump’s eventual successor. JD Vance leads among potential 2028 Republican presidential candidates with 52% support overall (59% among actual Republicans), making him a clear front-runner over Marco Rubio (20%) and Ron DeSantis (6%).

It’s much closer on the Democratic side, where Gavin Newsom leads with 20%, followed by Pete Buttigieg at 16% and Kamala Harris at 13%. The poll also found Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez had 9% support, Josh Shapiro 7% and Andy Beshear 5%. Nearly a quarter (24%) of Democratic voters were undecided. Demographically, AOC was strong with voters under 30, Buttigieg with women and postgrads, Newsom with older voters and Harris with Black voters.

Kimball noted Newsom polled 5 points higher last August amid a high-profile and successful congressional redistricting campaign, but pointed to a Feb. 18 Emerson poll showing Newsom’s support in his home state has since waned. The full results of Thursday’s poll are available here.

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