Trump Ducks Texas Senate Runoff After Teasing Endorsement, Leaving GOP Scramble Unresolved

On March 4, the day after Texas Republicans failed to pick a Senate nominee, Donald Trump made a promise: He'd endorse "soon" in the runoff between establishment fixture Sen. John Cornyn and scandal-plagued Attorney General Ken Paxton. He wanted the race wrapped up quickly, he said, for "the good of the Party."

Five weeks later, Trump has done exactly nothing.

The president blew past the April deadline for candidates to drop off the May 26 ballot without weighing in. Instead of picking a side in one of the most consequential GOP primaries of the cycle, he's spent his time trashing the Democratic nominee, state Rep. James Talarico, calling him "the Worst candidate I have ever seen" and claiming "any human being running against him, sick, incompetent, close to death or even a child, would win."

That's a remarkable pivot from Trump's March 4 posture, when he strongly implied the candidate he didn't endorse should drop out to avoid a messy runoff. At the time, Cornyn's allies were confident they could convince Trump that Paxton -- facing ethics scandals, impeachment acquittal, and allegations of extramarital affairs -- would be a liability in November.

But MAGA activists have spent the past month loudly lobbying against a Cornyn endorsement. And according to Politico, Paxton himself got face time with Trump at a GOP fundraiser at Mar-a-Lago, the president's Palm Beach resort and apparent seat of government these days.

The Pay-to-Play Presidency Strikes Again

That Mar-a-Lago meeting is worth dwelling on. Trump has turned his private club into a de facto lobbying shop where wealthy donors and ambitious politicians pay for access and influence. Paxton's ability to buttonhole the president at a fundraiser -- while Cornyn's team works the phones from Washington -- is a perfect illustration of how Trump has monetized the presidency.

It's the same playbook he's used since day one: If you want something from this administration, you'd better show up at Mar-a-Lago with a checkbook. Foreign governments book his hotels. Corporate executives join his golf clubs. And Republican candidates make the pilgrimage to Florida, hoping a few minutes with Trump will swing an election.

The fact that Trump is now downplaying the Democratic threat in Texas -- after initially suggesting the race was critical enough to warrant a quick resolution -- conveniently lets him avoid choosing between two factions of his own party. If Republicans win in November regardless of nominee, Trump can claim credit. If they lose, he can blame the candidate he didn't endorse.

A Runoff Frozen in Place

Trump's silence has left the race in a holding pattern. Cornyn's main super PAC, Texans for a Conservative Majority, has started airing AI-generated attack ads showing a cartoon Paxton swiping on dating apps and handing cash to liberal characters -- a reference to his alleged affairs and ethics violations. The group spent $100 million in the primary but only $13 million attacking Paxton directly, since they were also fending off third-place finisher Wesley Hunt.

"The problem is, for Paxton, now that it's mano a mano, we get to focus on him," said Aaron Whitehead, the super PAC's executive director. He promised "a lot more spending" as the May election approaches.

Paxton, speaking at CPAC in Grapevine last week, said he's "optimistic" about his chances. He argued that the 18% of primary voters who backed other candidates will break his way, and that he'll close the fundraising gap in the runoff. "He's not going to outspend me 20 to 1," Paxton said of Cornyn.

Early polling shows Paxton with a narrow lead, though most public surveys have come from Democratic groups. A late March poll by right-leaning Quantus Insights gave Paxton an 8-point edge. Texans for a Conservative Majority's internal polling found the race tied at 45-45.

Conventional wisdom favors Paxton in a runoff, where turnout typically drops and the remaining electorate skews more conservative and more MAGA-aligned. But Cornyn's allies insist the race is winnable, especially now that Trump has missed the dropout deadline and hardened the two-way contest.

"Trump not endorsing at this point has had an impact," said John Wittman, a Republican consultant and former adviser to Gov. Greg Abbott. "This is still a very close race. Paxton is probably the favorite right now, but this is absolutely a winnable race for John Cornyn."

The Electability Argument Collapses

Trump's decision to stay out has also undermined Cornyn's central pitch for the endorsement: that Paxton would be a weak general election candidate who could endanger a safe Republican seat and force the party to divert resources from competitive races elsewhere.

If Trump genuinely believes Talarico is so weak that "any human being" could beat him, why would he care whether Republicans nominate Cornyn or Paxton? The president's own rhetoric has gutted the electability argument his allies were counting on.

Cornyn's campaign is trying to flip the script, arguing that Talarico is actually a serious threat. "Democrats nominated their strongest candidate for U.S. Senate," said Matt Mackowiak, a senior adviser to Cornyn. "Texas Republicans must nominate John Cornyn, who is our strongest nominee by far."

Since Talarico's primary win, Republicans have been circulating clips of the Austin lawmaker discussing race, gender, and sexuality, hoping to paint him as too liberal for Texas. Trump has suggested Republicans "allowed" Talarico to win before "releasing the avalanche of information we had on him" -- a bizarre claim that implies the party somehow controlled the Democratic primary outcome.

What Happens Next

The runoff is now seven weeks away, and Trump could still weigh in at any moment. He's notoriously unpredictable, and an endorsement could still move votes, especially among the MAGA base that dominates runoff electorates.

But the longer he waits, the less it matters. Paxton has already said he's staying in the race no matter what Trump does. Some polling suggests a Trump endorsement for Cornyn would have limited impact anyway. And the pro-Cornyn super PAC is gearing up for a negative ad blitz that will define Paxton on ethics and character, with or without the president's blessing.

Senate GOP leadership in Washington has stayed mostly quiet since the runoff began, but Cornyn's allies say their position hasn't changed: They want him to win, and they're prepared to help him do it.

What's clear is that Trump's inaction has already shaped the race. By missing the dropout deadline and downplaying the Democratic threat, he's ensured this fight will go the distance -- and that Republicans will spend millions more attacking each other instead of preparing for November.

It's a mess of Trump's own making. And whether Cornyn or Paxton wins, the president will find a way to take credit.