Trump Scores a Win as UAE Quits OPEC, Delivering a Blow to the Oil Cartel

The United Arab Emirates’ decision to exit the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries on May 1 is more than just a regional shakeup — it’s a direct hit to the oil cartel that Donald Trump has been aiming for. The UAE, OPEC’s third-largest producer, has long been frustrated with Saudi Arabia’s leadership and quota allocations that limited its ability to capitalize on massive investments in fossil fuel infrastructure.

OPEC+ — the expanded cartel including Russia and other producers — sets production quotas based on complex factors like capacity and reserves. But the UAE’s push for higher quotas was repeatedly blocked by Saudi Arabia, culminating in a public clash in 2021. This isn’t the first time OPEC members have walked away: Indonesia, Qatar, Ecuador, and Angola have all left in recent years, exposing cracks in the cartel’s unity.

The timing of the UAE’s departure is strategic. With the Strait of Hormuz closed due to Persian Gulf tensions, oil exports are already constrained, preventing immediate price shocks from the exit. Meanwhile, the UAE has sought closer financial ties with the US, including tentative talks about currency swap lines with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. This would ensure the UAE maintains access to US dollars, crucial for keeping oil sales dollar-denominated — a key Trump priority.

Trump’s goal has been clear: weaken OPEC’s grip on the global oil market and protect the dollar’s supremacy in oil transactions. The UAE’s move plays directly into this strategy, especially given the recent $500 million investment by a UAE-linked entity in Trump’s crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, just before the 2026 inauguration.

Beyond oil, the UAE is a staunch US ally in a shifting Middle East, countering political Islam and strengthening ties with Israel and India through partnerships like I2U2. It hosts significant US military assets and remains a cornerstone of the Abraham Accords, Trump’s signature Middle East diplomatic achievement.

Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, is recalibrating its approach. With a larger population and less economic diversification, Riyadh is focusing on investments that yield monetary returns rather than soft power projects like sports sponsorships. Its potential cutback on LIV Golf funding signals a new transactional era in Gulf politics, moving away from the image-building efforts of recent years.

The UAE’s defection weakens OPEC at a critical moment and could inspire other members like Venezuela to reconsider their allegiance, especially as Trump’s influence reshapes geopolitics in Latin America and the Middle East. This development underscores the broader erosion of traditional alliances and the rise of a more transactional, less cooperative global order — exactly what Trump wanted.