Trump Tries to Rig Midterms With Voter Suppression Executive Order as Approval Hits Rock Bottom

The Desperation Play

President Donald Trump is polling at 35% approval—essentially his floor—with just over 200 days until the midterm elections. His response? An executive order aimed squarely at making it harder for Americans to vote.

On Tuesday, Trump directed the Department of Homeland Security to create an "approved list" of absentee voters and prohibited states from sending mail-in ballots to anyone not on that federal list. Translation: the administration wants veto power over who gets to vote by mail.

More than 20 Democratic-led states have already filed lawsuits challenging the order, which represents a brazen federal power grab over state election administration.

The Numbers Tell the Story

Trump's political crisis is real and measurable. A recent Quinnipiac University poll found that 51% of registered voters want Democrats to control the House after November—an 11-point lead over Republicans. A CNN poll pegged Trump's approval at just 35%, meaning even some of his 2024 voters are having second thoughts.

Since Trump returned to office, Democrats have flipped 30 seats previously held by Republicans in special elections and state legislative races across the country. Republicans have flipped exactly zero Democratic seats in that same period.

The momentum is undeniable, and the White House knows it.

The Playbook: When Losing, Attack the Election

Trump's instinct when facing electoral defeat is always the same: discredit the process itself. He tried it in 2020. He's trying it again now.

The executive order is legally dubious at best. States have constitutional authority to administer their own elections, and the federal government has no legitimate role in deciding which eligible voters can access absentee ballots. But legality has never been Trump's primary concern—the goal is to create enough chaos and bureaucratic barriers to suppress Democratic turnout.

Mail-in voting has historically benefited Democrats in recent cycles, particularly among younger voters, people with disabilities, and those who cannot easily take time off work to vote in person. By requiring federal approval for absentee ballot access, Trump is essentially trying to filter out voters he assumes won't support him.

Georgia's Bellwether Race

The political stakes come into focus this Tuesday in Georgia's 14th Congressional District, where a special election runoff could flip another Republican seat.

Democrat Shawn Harris, a retired brigadier general, is facing Republican Clay Fuller in a race to fill the remainder of Marjorie Taylor Greene's term. (Greene vacated the seat in January after her appointment to a White House role.)

Harris was the top vote-getter in last month's mixed-party primary, an encouraging sign in a district Trump won handily. He also has a significant cash advantage and a strong ground game. Fuller, endorsed early by Trump, rallied with the president in February—but that may not be enough in a district that's seen demographic shifts and growing suburban discontent with Trump's second term.

It's still a long shot for Harris in a deeply red district. But if he pulls it off, it would be the 31st Republican-held seat flipped by Democrats since Trump took office—and a signal that the midterm wave is real.

What Comes Next

Expect more desperate moves from the White House as November approaches. The pattern is predictable: prime-time addresses, Cabinet shake-ups, executive orders designed to create the appearance of action, and relentless attacks on the legitimacy of any election Trump fears he'll lose.

The voter suppression executive order is just the opening salvo. Trump's political survival depends on undermining confidence in the democratic process itself—and he's shown no hesitation about doing exactly that.

The question is whether the courts, state election officials, and voters themselves will let him get away with it.