Trump’s Approval Hits New Low as Iran War Backfires and Democrats Surge

Donald Trump’s grip on public support is slipping fast, with his net approval rating dropping to a record low of minus 16.9, according to poll analyst Nate Silver’s latest aggregate. More than 56 percent of Americans now disapprove of Trump’s performance, a stark contrast to the 39.5 percent who still back him. This marks the worst rating of his presidency and is unprecedented territory for any president at this stage in their term, even worse than Trump’s own previous lows.

The ongoing war with Iran is a major factor driving Trump’s decline. His approval on key issues like the economy, trade, and inflation has taken a nosedive since the conflict escalated, with net approval on inflation plunging to minus 33.6. While immigration ratings remain relatively stable, the fallout from the Iran war has clearly rattled voters’ confidence in Trump’s leadership.

Public opposition to the war is strong, with 53.8 percent of Americans opposing it and only 38.7 percent in support. Though the polls don’t yet reflect the recent ceasefire announcement, the stock market’s recent rebound—up nearly 7 percent since late March—could help Trump claw back some support if economic conditions improve and fuel prices stabilize.

Democrats are already reaping the benefits of Trump’s faltering popularity. In a special election runoff in Georgia’s 14th district, the Republican candidate won by just 12 points—a dramatic 25-point drop from Trump’s margin in the same district during the 2024 presidential race. Similar leftward shifts appeared in other recent elections, signaling a potential wave for Democrats.

Looking ahead to the November midterms, Democrats hold a 5.5-point lead in generic ballot polls, putting them on track to retake the House of Representatives. However, the Senate remains a tougher battleground. Republicans defend 22 of the 35 seats up for election, many in reliably red, low-population states that skew the chamber’s balance. Even with a national swing toward Democrats, the GOP is likely to retain a narrow Senate majority.

The labor market offers mixed signals. While the official unemployment rate remains low at 4.3 percent, the employment population ratio—a more telling measure of workforce health—has declined, suggesting fewer Americans are participating in the labor force. This subtle erosion contrasts with Australia’s stronger employment ratio, highlighting persistent challenges in the U.S. economy under Trump’s watch.

In sum, Trump’s Iran war gamble has backfired politically, eroding his approval and energizing Democratic opposition ahead of critical midterm elections. Unless the economy dramatically improves or the political landscape shifts, Trump faces an uphill battle to maintain his party’s congressional majorities and restore his battered public standing.