Trump's Approval Rating Craters as Tariff Chaos and Iran War Spark Market Panic

The Honeymoon's Over

Donald Trump won re-election despite most Americans holding an unfavorable view of him -- a remarkable feat that briefly gave way to improved approval ratings immediately after his victory. That grace period is now definitively over.

According to polling data compiled by The Times, Trump's approval rating has collapsed following his "liberation day" tariff blitz in February 2025 and subsequent military strikes on Iran. At this point in their presidencies, both Barack Obama and Joe Biden held significantly higher favorability scores than Trump, per Gallup polling.

The numbers tell a stark story: only 27 percent of Americans support Trump's attacks on Iran, with 43 percent opposed, according to an Ipsos snap poll. Even among his own party, 13 percent of Republicans oppose the strikes. When asked whether Trump used appropriate military force, 56 percent of all voters said he used "too much."

Breaking Campaign Promises on War

Trump's Iran offensive directly contradicts his "America-first" campaign rhetoric. In his inaugural address, he promised to measure success "not only by the battles we win but also by the wars that we end -- and perhaps most importantly, the wars we never get into."

That pledge lasted less than a year. The killing of Iran's supreme leader and sustained military strikes have pushed the so-called "fear index" -- the Vix measure of stock market volatility -- to levels not seen since the COVID pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis. A YouGov poll in January found that many Americans believe Trump should spend more time on the economy instead of foreign entanglements.

Economic Approval Collapses Amid Tariff Fallout

Throughout most of his first term, Americans approved of Trump's handling of the economy, particularly during the COVID pandemic. That advantage has evaporated. Net approval of his economic management has plunged from plus 12 in January 2025 to negative territory following his tariff offensive.

The stock market -- Trump's preferred measure of success -- tells a similar story. After "liberation day," the S&P 500 experienced sharp declines, and the Vix volatility index spiked dramatically. The Iran war has only compounded market instability, with fear "inevitably creeping back" into trading, according to The Times analysis.

Trump's much-hyped push to make the United States the "crypto capital of the planet" has also faltered. Despite executive orders revoking cryptocurrency regulations and plans for a US crypto reserve, bitcoin prices are actually lower now than when Trump took office, following a dramatic crash in early 2026.

Record Executive Orders, Minimal Results

Trump has issued executive orders at a faster pace than any president in living memory -- more than 50 in his first few weeks alone, and more in his first year back than during his entire first term. These include orders on "emergency price relief" to tackle inflation, officially recognizing only two genders, and completing the southern border wall.

Yet inflation remains stable below 3 percent -- roughly where it was when Trump took office, after falling from a Biden-era peak of 9.1 percent in June 2022. Trump can claim no credit for taming inflation; he inherited a stabilized rate.

ICE Raids Turn Deadly

Trump's immigration crackdown has achieved one measurable outcome: net migration for unauthorized arrivals has been negative since early 2025, following his declaration of a national emergency on the southern border and orders for ICE to increase deportations.

But the human cost has been severe. Families of men flown to a high-security jail in El Salvador say they received no chance to appeal and were mistakenly identified as criminal gang members. ICE raids have sparked anti-deportation protests nationwide.

Most troublingly, federal agents have killed American citizens during enforcement operations. On January 7, ICE officer shot and killed Renee Nicole Good, 37, in Minneapolis. Less than three weeks later, on January 24, federal agents shot and killed Alex Pretti, an intensive care nurse, during a protest.

These fatal shootings have galvanized opposition to Trump's immigration policies and raised urgent questions about accountability for federal law enforcement.

A Presidency Defined by Chaos

Trump's return to office has been characterized by sweeping climate policy reversals, the release of the Epstein files, the capture of Venezuela's president, tariff-induced economic instability, and a war with Iran. His approval ratings reflect a public increasingly alarmed by the chaos.

The data is clear: Americans are not buying what Trump is selling. His promises to avoid foreign wars have given way to military strikes opposed by a majority of voters. His economic stewardship has triggered market panic. His immigration crackdown has left American citizens dead.

At this stage of his presidency, Trump's approval numbers lag behind his recent predecessors -- a damning indictment for a president who won re-election promising competence and results. Instead, Americans are getting volatility, violence, and broken promises.