Trump's CPAC Base Loves His Tariffs—Even as Courts Rule Them Illegal and Economists Say Americans Pay the Price

The Conservative Political Action Conference has spoken, and its message is clear: tariffs are popular—at least among the Republican base that shows up to CPAC. A straw poll conducted at the late-March gathering found that 91% of attendees support Trump's use of import taxes, with nearly 70% strongly in favor.

That enthusiasm stands in stark contrast to both legal reality and economic evidence. In February 2025, the U.S. Supreme Court ruled that Trump exceeded his authority by using the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs worldwide. The decision left $166 billion in already-collected import taxes in legal limbo, with the U.S. Court of International Trade now overseeing litigation over potential refunds.

Trump's latest 10% global entry tariff under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 faces a separate legal challenge that remains pending.

The CPAC Bubble vs. Reality

The McLaughlin & Associates survey asked 1,630 CPAC attendees whether they supported Trump's "use of tariffs to reduce America's trade deficit and create a more level playing field for American workers and businesses." The framing worked: only 7% disapproved.

But step outside the CPAC ballroom and the picture changes dramatically. A January Pew Research Center poll found that 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump's import tax hikes, with only 37% in favor. Even among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, support drops to 71%—still a majority, but nowhere near CPAC's near-unanimous backing.

The disconnect becomes sharper when you ask who actually pays for tariffs. The Center Square's Voters' Voice Poll in early March found that 42% of Americans believe consumers primarily bear the costs, while 38% say the burden is shared among all parties involved in trade. Only 12% think foreign countries pay—the claim Trump has repeatedly made to justify the policy.

Republicans were more likely to buy the administration's line, but even there, only 21% said foreign nations pay. A plurality of 43% acknowledged that all parties share the higher costs.

What the Evidence Shows

Multiple independent economic studies have reached the same conclusion: Americans are paying for Trump's tariffs, not China or any other foreign country.

A Federal Reserve Bank of New York report, research from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, and a December 2025 Duke University study all found that U.S. businesses and consumers are bearing nearly the entire cost of the import taxes. The Yale Budget Lab estimated that Section 122 tariffs alone could cost the average U.S. household $600 to $800 annually.

Even Republican voters seem to recognize this reality, at least partially. A March Harris Poll conducted for the Guardian found that 64% of Republicans believed Trump's tariffs contributed to rising prices—lower than the 77% of Democrats and 67% of independents who said the same, but still a clear majority.

The Revenue Mirage

Trump has defended the tariffs by claiming the revenue could fund increased military spending and other priorities, including a promised tariff refund check for some Americans. He has also argued that the import taxes will bring back manufacturing jobs lost to low-wage countries over recent decades.

Experts have questioned whether tariffs will raise enough money to cover these costly spending plans, particularly given the legal challenges that could force refunds of billions already collected. The Supreme Court's February ruling that Trump exceeded his authority undermines the entire revenue model—you cannot fund long-term spending commitments with taxes that courts have declared illegal.

The manufacturing jobs argument faces its own problems. Tariffs raise costs for American companies that rely on imported components, making them less competitive globally. They also invite retaliatory tariffs from trading partners, harming U.S. exporters. The policy may protect some domestic industries in the short term, but at the expense of broader economic efficiency and consumer purchasing power.

A Midterm Wedge Issue

As the 2026 election approaches, tariffs have emerged as a potential wedge issue—not between Republicans and Democrats, but between the Republican base and the broader electorate. CPAC attendees may love the policy, but most Americans remain skeptical, and the economic evidence backs up that skepticism.

The legal challenges add another layer of uncertainty. If courts ultimately force the government to refund billions in tariff revenue, the political fallout could be significant. Voters who were promised that foreign countries would pay may not appreciate learning that they footed the bill—and that the whole scheme was illegal from the start.

Trump did not attend this year's CPAC conference, but he followed the proceedings closely and shared the straw poll results on social media, including the tariff question. The 91% approval rating offers a snapshot of his most loyal supporters' views, but it may also highlight how disconnected that base has become from economic reality and legal constraints.

The Supreme Court has spoken. The economic data is clear. But at CPAC, none of that seems to matter.