Trump’s Immigration Raids Are Costing Jobs for Both Immigrants and American Workers, New Study Reveals

The Trump administration has long touted aggressive immigration raids and mass deportations as a win for American workers, promising that removing undocumented immigrants from the labor market frees up jobs for U.S. citizens. A new study from the National Bureau of Economic Research shatters that narrative, revealing that the administration’s immigration crackdown is backfiring—hurting both immigrant and native-born workers.

The research, led by economists Chloe East and Elizabeth Cox, analyzed monthly employment data from immigrant-heavy sectors in regions hit hardest by ICE arrests during 2025. Their findings are stark: increased immigration enforcement caused employment among undocumented immigrants, primarily men who made up 90 percent of arrests, to drop by 4 to 5 percent. More alarmingly, for every six undocumented male workers who lost their jobs, one U.S.-born man with a high school education or less also lost employment.

This chilling effect extends beyond the direct impact of arrests. Fear of ICE encounters led many immigrants to reduce work hours or stop working altogether, further depressing labor market activity. The industries most affected—agriculture, construction, and manufacturing—are those heavily dependent on immigrant labor. The ripple effect even hit higher-skilled native-born workers in construction, such as electricians and plumbers, who lost jobs as immigrant labor disappeared.

“We are showing, using the best available real-time data on the second Trump administration, that heightened ICE activity has been really harmful for the labor market, not only for immigrant workers who remain in the U.S. but also for U.S.-born workers,” said East.

The Trump White House dismissed the findings, with spokeswoman Abigail Jackson claiming there is “no shortage of American minds and hands” and defending the administration’s immigration enforcement as a job creator. But the study’s data directly contradict this rosy picture. Previous research has similarly found that mass deportations, whether in the 1930s, 2010s, or now, do not boost job opportunities for native-born workers.

This study is the first to rigorously analyze the labor market fallout from the Trump administration’s intensified immigration crackdown last year. Its findings expose the falsehood at the heart of the administration’s messaging: mass deportations do not create jobs for Americans, they destroy livelihoods across communities.

As the Trump administration continues to weaponize immigration enforcement, the real victims are both immigrant families and American workers caught in the fallout of reckless policies that prioritize political theater over economic reality.