Trump's Iran Ceasefire Already Falling Apart as Attacks Continue Across Middle East

Ceasefire in Name Only

A two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran took effect Wednesday following a last-minute deal brokered by Pakistan, but the ink was barely dry before attacks resumed across the Middle East. Iran reported its oil refinery on Lavan Island was hit, while Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates all reported Iranian missile fire. Israel launched what it called its largest bombing campaign yet against Hezbollah in Lebanon, killing dozens and wounding hundreds.

President Donald Trump had threatened to "wipe out a whole civilization" if Iran did not capitulate to U.S. demands. Now both sides are claiming victory in a deal that appears to be disintegrating in real time.

Nobody Knows What the Deal Actually Says

The confusion starts with what the ceasefire even covers. Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif announced Tuesday that Iran, the U.S. and its allies "have agreed to an immediate ceasefire everywhere including Lebanon and elsewhere, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY."

But Trump told PBS on Wednesday that Hezbollah in Lebanon "were not included in the deal." Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu echoed that claim, vowing to continue attacking Hezbollah. The White House did not respond to requests for clarification.

So either Pakistan's prime minister misrepresented the deal he brokered, or Trump and Netanyahu are openly violating it. Neither scenario inspires confidence.

The Devastation Trump Calls Victory

Gen. Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, laid out the scale of destruction inflicted on Iran during 38 days of war. The U.S. military struck more than 13,000 targets, destroying around 80% of Iran's air defense systems, 90% of its naval fleet, and nearly 80% of its nuclear industrial base, according to Caine.

The Pentagon hit 1,500 air defense targets, more than 450 ballistic missile storage facilities, and 800 drone storage facilities. Around 150 Iranian ships and half its small attack boats were sunk. Ninety percent of Iran's weapons facilities were attacked.

Trump and Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth both claimed Wednesday that Iran will hand over its uranium and give up future enrichment. Iran has repeatedly affirmed its right to enrich uranium for energy purposes under international law, and there is no indication Tehran has agreed to abandon that position. The disconnect between what U.S. officials are saying and what Iran is saying suggests this ceasefire may be built on mutual misunderstanding at best, deliberate deception at worst.

Oil Prices Drop, But Cheaper Gas Is Months Away

Oil prices fell following the ceasefire announcement, but Americans should not expect relief at the pump anytime soon. The U.S. Energy Information Administration warned that fuel prices could continue rising for months even after the Strait of Hormuz fully reopens.

"Just as we had never before seen the strait close, we've never seen it reopen," EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said. "What exactly that looks like remains to be seen. Full restoration of flows will take months."

The national average price for a gallon of regular unleaded gas held at about $4.17 on Wednesday morning. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, predicted it could fall below $4 within one or two weeks -- but that is still well above pre-war levels, and the EIA's warning suggests any relief may be temporary.

Pakistan Begs Everyone to Stop Shooting

As attacks continued across the region Wednesday, Pakistan's Prime Minister Sharif issued a desperate plea for all parties to "exercise restraint and respect the ceasefire for two weeks, as agreed upon, so that diplomacy can take a lead role towards peaceful settlement of the conflict."

"Violations of ceasefire have been reported at few places across the conflict zone which undermine the spirit of peace process," Sharif wrote on X.

The fact that the ceasefire broker is already begging people to stop violating the ceasefire hours after it took effect does not bode well for the next two weeks.

Lebanon Pays the Price

Israel said it carried out its most intense bombing campaign in Lebanon on Wednesday, with Lebanon's Health Ministry reporting dozens of deaths and hundreds of injuries. Israel launched a ground invasion of southern Lebanon after Hezbollah attacked Israel following the killing of Iran's former supreme leader Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28.

The Israeli military said it will indefinitely occupy a large section of southern Lebanon and has begun destroying homes in villages near the Israeli border. More than a million people in Lebanon have been displaced and more than 1,500 have been killed, according to the country's health ministry.

Whether Lebanon is covered by the ceasefire or not, the people there are still dying.

What Happens Next

Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on countries that supply Iran with weapons -- adding yet another layer of economic chaos to his already disastrous tariff policies. Pentagon Chief Hegseth said the American military "has done its part for now" but "remains ready" to resume attacks if Iran violates the ceasefire.

Iran said the Strait of Hormuz will remain open as negotiations take place, but given the confusion over basic terms of the deal and the ongoing attacks across the region, it is unclear what exactly is being negotiated or whether anyone is negotiating in good faith.

Sen. Lindsey Graham expressed concern over the negotiations, though his specific objections were cut off in the source material -- a fitting metaphor for a ceasefire that appears to have been announced before anyone figured out what it actually meant.