Trump's Iran "Ceasefire" Collapses as Israel Bombs Lebanon and US Threatens to Resume Attacks

A Ceasefire That Never Was

Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump declared a "big day for world peace" with Iran, the fragile two-week ceasefire is collapsing under the weight of its own contradictions. Israel launched what its military called the "largest strike" on Lebanon since the conflict began, killing dozens and injuring hundreds, according to Lebanon's health ministry. The Israeli government made clear that while it welcomed the US-Iran deal, "the agreement does not include Lebanon."

That's a problem, because one of Iran's main preconditions for the ceasefire was that attacks on Lebanon would stop. Sources close to Hezbollah told ITV that the Strait of Hormuz—the critical waterway Iran agreed to reopen—will remain closed until Israeli strikes on Lebanon cease. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said their "hand is on the trigger" if the US breaches the agreement.

So much for that golden age of Middle East peace Trump promised.

Pentagon Admits It's Ready to Resume Fighting

At a Pentagon news conference Wednesday, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Caine made clear the US military views this ceasefire as little more than a tactical pause. "A ceasefire is a pause and the joint force remains ready, if ordered or called upon, to resume combat operations—with the same speed and precision as we've demonstrated over the last 38 days," Caine said.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth went further, claiming the US had won a "decisive military victory" with a "capital V" and that American forces would be "hanging around" in Iran. "Iran begged for this ceasefire and we all know it," Hegseth declared, despite Iran's own officials framing the deal as a win for Tehran.

Both sides claiming victory while threatening to restart hostilities is not what a successful peace process looks like. It's what a manufactured crisis designed to boost poll numbers looks like.

Trump Wants to Turn the Strait of Hormuz Into a Toll Road

In perhaps the most brazen example of treating foreign policy as a real estate deal, Trump told the New York Post that charging countries to use the Strait of Hormuz could be a "joint venture" with Iran. "It's a beautiful thing," he reportedly said.

Iran has already indicated it wants to charge fees for ships passing through the Strait, arguing the toll is necessary to cover war damages—a position opposed by the US and Gulf allies but one that could net the regime millions of dollars. Rather than rejecting this shakedown outright, Trump appears interested in getting a cut.

The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most critical chokepoints for oil and gas shipments. Turning it into a pay-to-play scheme would be an economic disaster for global trade and a windfall for authoritarian regimes. But for Trump, it's just another business opportunity.

Allies Refuse to Back Trump's War

European allies have made clear they want no part of Trump's manufactured conflict with Iran. Italy's deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini said Wednesday that his country will not send ships to patrol the Hormuz Strait unless authorized by the United Nations. Italy also denied permission for US military aircraft to land at the Sigonella air base in Sicily en route to the Middle East last week.

Other NATO allies have similarly distanced themselves from the operation, raising questions about how "decisive" this victory really was if America's closest partners refused to participate.

The Endgame: Distraction and Profiteering

Trump announced this ceasefire hours after threatening to "wipe Iranian civilization off the map"—a threat of genocide that should have been disqualifying on its own. The whiplash from apocalyptic threats to peace declarations to renewed violence reveals the chaotic, self-serving nature of this entire operation.

The pattern is familiar: manufacture a crisis, escalate to the brink of catastrophe, declare victory in a deal that changes nothing fundamental, then threaten to blow it all up again while looking for ways to profit. Rinse and repeat.

In-person talks between the US and Iran are scheduled to take place "very soon" in Islamabad, according to Trump. But with Israel still bombing Lebanon, the Pentagon openly planning to resume combat operations, and Trump scheming to monetize a vital shipping lane, there's little reason to believe this ceasefire will last the full two weeks—let alone lead to lasting peace.

The only thing decisive about this "victory" is that it proves once again that Trump views foreign policy as a combination of reality TV drama and business deal, with human lives as collateral damage and authoritarian regimes as potential partners in grift.