Trump's Iran War Ends in Stalemate After Wrecking Global Economy and U.S. Credibility

A Cease-Fire That Isn't

On Tuesday night, Donald Trump declared a two-week pause in his manufactured war with Iran. By Wednesday morning, attacks on Gulf states resumed and Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again in response to Israeli strikes on Lebanon. Oil prices briefly plunged before reality set in: this "cease-fire" changes nothing.

The conflict that began February 28 has left the United States diplomatically isolated, the global economy reeling, and Iran with effective control over the world's most critical energy chokepoint. As Atlantic Council experts assess the wreckage, one conclusion emerges clearly—this war had no winners, only catastrophic losses.

Iran Now Controls the Global Oil Supply

While markets initially celebrated the cease-fire announcement, energy experts warn the damage runs deep. "Large oil-carrying ships take more than twenty-four hours to load, and ship owners and insurers are unlikely to rush back into normal operations," explains Landon Derentz, who served as Trump's own director for energy at the White House during his first term. "Energy trade flows in the Middle East do not function like a light switch."

The bigger problem is structural. Iran enters negotiations with operational control of the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow waterway through which roughly 20 percent of global oil supplies flow. Tehran has demonstrated it can close the strait at will, giving it permanent leverage over Gulf economies and global energy markets.

"For Gulf countries, this dangerous new normal means Iran gets to keep a noose around their economies in perpetuity," says Allison Minor, former director for Arabian Peninsula affairs at the National Security Council under Trump. Even if Wednesday's attacks resulted from "lingering Iranian command-and-control issues," the pattern is clear: Iran can strangle global energy supplies whenever it chooses, and Trump's war did nothing to change that.

Negotiations Built to Fail

The United States and Iran plan to begin talks in Islamabad on Friday, but their opening positions guarantee failure. Iran has reportedly demanded full withdrawal of U.S. forces from the region and payment of reparations—terms that Nate Swanson, former Iran policy adviser to both Trump and Biden, describes as "beyond maximalist."

"The most likely negotiation outcome is an ambiguous version of the cease-fire continuing indefinitely, which, while unseemly, is better than the alternative," Swanson says. Translation: Trump started a war he cannot win and cannot end, so we get permanent low-level conflict instead.

Victoria Taylor, former deputy assistant secretary of state for Iraq and Iran, notes that reporting on the proposals shows the parties "remain diametrically opposed." With Tehran refusing to budge on nuclear enrichment or ballistic missile development, "this cease-fire appears to be more of an off-ramp than a real framework for negotiations."

The Wreckage Trump Leaves Behind

If this is the end of Trump's Iran war—and that remains uncertain—the accounting is damning. "This war has no winners, only losers," Swanson argues. "If this is the end of the Iran war, it is a stunning indictment for an ill-conceived, counter-productive conflict."

For the United States, the losses include major damage to the global economy, strained partnerships with traditional Gulf allies and Europe, and potentially permanent harm to American credibility. Trump's apocalyptic threats in recent days—including suggestions of nuclear strikes—horrified allies and adversaries alike.

"The United States and Israel demonstrated their superior military power and ability to inflict punishing damage to Iran's military capabilities," Taylor acknowledges. But the strategic picture remains bleak. "Iraqi militias, the Houthis, and even a weakened Hezbollah remain potent tools for the regime to use against the United States, Israel, and the region."

Iran sacrificed relationships with Gulf neighbors and continues relying on brute force to suppress internal dissent, but the regime survived—and gained new leverage. "The regime might celebrate its survival, but its outlook is bleak," Swanson notes. Yet Tehran now wields control of the Strait of Hormuz as a primary deterrent, a lever it will be "loath to give up."

Core Problems Remain Unsolved

The cease-fire leaves fundamental issues unresolved. Iran's ballistic missile program continues. Its support for proxy forces across the region persists. Its nuclear enrichment proceeds. And now it has demonstrated the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and hold the global economy hostage.

"The cease-fire leaves many of the core dilemmas that existed prior to the war—such as Iran's ballistic missiles and support to its proxies—unanswered," Taylor says. "And it adds the new challenge of dealing with Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz."

Trump manufactured this crisis through maximum pressure sanctions, diplomatic sabotage, and military escalation. Six weeks of strikes accomplished nothing except economic damage, diplomatic isolation, and a new normal where Iran controls global energy flows. The war was ill-conceived, counter-productive, and entirely avoidable.

Now we face either indefinite low-level conflict or negotiations built on incompatible demands. Either way, Trump's war on Iran stands as a monument to reckless incompetence—and the world will pay the price for years to come.