Trump’s Iran War Hands Big Oil a Fat Payday While Americans Pay at the Pump

The disastrous war with Iran that the Trump administration helped ignite is delivering a massive financial windfall to big oil companies, experts warn — and that cash is poised to block progress on climate change just when the world can least afford it.

Attacks on Iran’s fossil fuel infrastructure and the strategic blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have triggered an energy shock, sending oil prices and company profits through the roof. ConocoPhillips reported a staggering $2.3 billion in profits for Q1 2026, up 84 percent since before the war. Other oil giants like BP and Shell also saw their earnings more than double, while smaller firms linked to Trump’s own energy circle, such as Liberty Energy, enjoyed sharp gains.

Meanwhile, everyday Americans are getting hammered at the gas pump. The national average price for a gallon of gasoline hit $4.52, the highest since mid-2022. “The reason oil companies are doing so well is exactly because Americans are hurting,” says Kelly Mitchell of Fieldnotes, a watchdog group tracking fossil fuel profiteering. “Their business model is to squeeze every last cent out of a barrel of oil — and the people paying the price are working Americans just trying to fill their tanks.”

Trump himself has dismissed the pain as “a very small price to pay,” signaling his administration’s clear priorities: big oil’s bottom line over the public good. Since taking office, Trump has rolled back Biden-era restrictions, including ending the ban on liquefied natural gas exports, which analysts say has pushed U.S. gas prices even higher.

Democratic Rep. Sean Casten of Illinois points to the stark political calculus behind this: “If you’re a U.S. oil producer, you’re really happy right now. If you’re a consumer, you’re not. There are far more consumers than producers, but this White House is ignoring the majority of Americans.”

The timing of this oil bonanza couldn’t be worse for the climate. The fossil fuel industry is flush with cash just as it secures major policy victories, including Trump’s 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act, which massively expands fossil fuel subsidies. Lukas Shankar-Ross from Friends of the Earth warns this “wall of money” will bankroll lobbying efforts to entrench Trump-era fossil fuel gains and block climate action.

Economists Isabella Weber and Gregor Semieniuk note that the last major fuel shock, triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, saw a similar pattern: fossil fuel profits surged, lobbying ramped up, and climate commitments took a backseat. “This is exactly the opposite of what we need for climate mitigation,” says Weber. “It strengthens fossil fuel interests politically and financially at a critical moment.”

There are some glimmers of hope. Renewables are becoming more competitive, and the U.S. recently generated more electricity from renewables than gas for the first time over a full month. High fuel prices are also chipping away at Trump’s popularity, potentially opening the door for more climate-forward leadership in 2029.

But make no mistake: this Iran war is a huge boon to big oil’s political power, and it threatens to lock in decades more of fossil fuel dependence — all at the expense of American families and the planet. The Trump administration’s reckless foreign policy is fueling climate chaos at home and abroad, and the price we pay is only going up.