Trump’s Iran War Has Failed Its Goals But Locked In Tehran’s Grip On The Strait Of Hormuz

President Trump crowed prematurely on Truth Social in April that Iran had reopened the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping. But that brief opening was a mirage. Instead, the war Trump launched has left the strait effectively under Iranian control — a strategic victory for Tehran despite U.S. military strikes on over 13,000 targets.

None of the Trump administration’s stated goals have been met. Iran’s nuclear program remains intact, its missile capabilities undiminished, proxy forces operational, and regime change nowhere in sight. Instead, the conflict has locked the two sides into a stalemate with no durable cease-fire forthcoming. Experts at a Vanderbilt panel predicted the economic fallout could drag on for months, possibly up to nine.

Iran’s newfound leverage over the strait, through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas once flowed, is a game-changer. Tehran can now threaten to close the waterway at will, demanding tolls or managing it alongside other nations — a power it never had before. Former State Department official Richard Haass put it bluntly: Iran has implicit control because it has demonstrated it can shut the strait despite facing the world’s most powerful military.

This shift threatens global energy markets, keeping prices elevated and inflation high. Companies are already eyeing costly alternative routes and infrastructure projects to bypass the strait, but such changes will take years. Meanwhile, the U.S. military remains committed to a blockade that strains resources and risks a prolonged engagement.

Trump's recent claim that Iran is in “State of Collapse” and eager to reopen the strait is contradicted by Tehran’s refusal to relinquish its advantage. Negotiations have stalled, and no new talks are scheduled. Behind the scenes, Pentagon officials worry about the rapid depletion of U.S. weapons stocks, while Vice President Vance and others debate the risks of reigniting hostilities.

The economic damage to Iran is severe — estimated at $144 billion, or 40 percent of its prewar GDP — but Tehran may see controlling the strait as a potential revenue source through tolls. The White House’s earlier openness to this idea has cooled under pressure from Gulf allies.

Ultimately, the Trump administration faces a grim reality: the war it launched to weaken Iran has instead empowered it, reshaping the geopolitical and economic landscape of the Persian Gulf for years to come. The Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a passageway — it is a strategic lever Iran now holds, and the consequences will ripple far beyond the region.