Trump's Venezuela Gambit Could Hand Big Oil a $192 Trillion Gas Bonanza

The Trump administration has framed its intervention in Venezuela as a liberation mission, but a new analysis from the Center for Strategic and International Studies reveals what may be the real prize: access to one of the world's largest untapped natural gas reserves.

Venezuela sits on roughly 192 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves -- resources that have remained largely stranded under the Maduro government due to sanctions, mismanagement, and ideological opposition to Western energy partnerships. Now, with the Trump administration working to remove Maduro from power, energy analysts are already mapping out how quickly multinational corporations can move in to monetize those assets.

Shell Is Already Positioning Itself

The rush is already underway. Shell reached a final investment decision in 2024 on the Trinidad portion of the Loran-Manatee gas field, which straddles the maritime border between Trinidad and Venezuela. The Trinidadian side holds an estimated 2.7 trillion cubic feet of gas, while Venezuela's adjacent Loran field contains roughly 7.3 trillion cubic feet -- nearly three times as much.

Shell and Trinidad's National Gas Company also hold a 30-year license for Venezuela's Dragon gas field, estimated at 4.2 trillion cubic feet. Development has been on hold due to U.S. sanctions, but the CSIS analysis notes that with "further easing of U.S. sanctions," production could begin as early as 2029. Translation: the moment a U.S.-friendly government takes power in Caracas, the drilling can start.

The Dragon field sits in shallow water, about 100 to 125 meters deep, with "minimal geological risk" -- industry speak for easy money. Shell's Hibiscus platform in Trinidadian waters is only 10 miles away, meaning the infrastructure to extract and export Venezuelan gas already exists. All that's missing is the political green light.

The Trinidad Pipeline: Export Infrastructure Already in Place

Venezuela's gas resources have long been considered stranded because the country lacks the infrastructure to liquefy and export natural gas on a global scale. But Trinidad and Tobago, Venezuela's neighbor, already operates the Atlantic LNG export facility -- a ready-made export terminal that could process Venezuelan gas and ship it to global markets.

Trinidad currently produces about 2.4 billion cubic feet per day of gas and exports roughly 1.2 billion cubic feet per day as liquefied natural gas. But Trinidad's own gas reserves are in structural decline. Venezuelan gas could fill that gap, keeping Trinidad's export facility profitable while generating revenue for whoever controls Venezuela's resources.

According to the CSIS analysis, incremental Venezuelan gas volumes could reach approximately 1.8 billion cubic feet per day within four years if "above-ground requirements -- including fiscal, legal, and licensing -- move smoothly." Over five to seven years, that could grow to 3 billion cubic feet per day, not counting additional associated gas from oil drilling.

Who Benefits From "Energy Diversification"?

The CSIS report frames Venezuela's gas development as an "energy diversification benefit" for the Western Hemisphere, making the region "less exposed to adversaries and bad actors." But the primary beneficiaries of this diversification would be multinational energy corporations like Shell and BP, which already hold licenses and development agreements for Venezuelan gas fields.

The report acknowledges that Venezuela and Trinidad had previously negotiated a government-to-government framework for developing the shared Loran-Manatee field, with each country developing its respective share. But with regime change on the horizon, the report suggests that "full unitization of the field could now be reconsidered" -- meaning the entire field could be developed under a single, likely corporate-led, framework.

BP is also positioned to benefit. The company has been involved in developing the Manakin-Cocuina gas field, estimated at around 1 trillion cubic feet. The CSIS report notes that "sustained U.S. government support will be critical to its development and monetization."

The Pattern: Regime Change, Resource Extraction

Venezuela has the largest proven oil reserves in the world -- 303 billion barrels -- and now we're learning that its natural gas reserves are nearly as significant. For decades, those resources have been off-limits to Western energy companies due to Venezuela's socialist government and resulting U.S. sanctions.

The Trump administration has publicly justified its Venezuela policy as a defense of democracy and human rights. But the timing of this CSIS analysis, published as the administration escalates pressure on Maduro, suggests that energy access is a primary motivator.

The report's language is telling. It describes Venezuela's gas resources as "trapped by ideology and mismanagement," framing state control of natural resources as an obstacle rather than a sovereign right. It argues that "if political stability holds in Caracas" -- meaning if a U.S.-friendly government takes power -- "gas may prove to be the fastest and most pragmatic pathway to reintegration."

Reintegration into what, exactly? The global fossil fuel market, dominated by the same corporations that have spent decades lobbying against climate action.

The Venezuelan People Are an Afterthought

The CSIS report mentions that gas development could "deliver wealth to the Venezuelan people," but provides no details on how that wealth would be distributed or what safeguards would prevent the kind of resource extraction that has enriched elites while leaving local populations impoverished in other oil-rich nations.

Venezuela's oil wealth has been notoriously mismanaged under both socialist and right-wing governments, with corruption siphoning off revenues that should have funded public services. There is no indication that a post-Maduro government would be any less susceptible to corruption, particularly if it comes to power with the backing of foreign energy interests.

The report also makes no mention of climate impacts. Developing 192 trillion cubic feet of natural gas would lock in decades of additional fossil fuel extraction at a time when scientists say the world must rapidly transition away from oil and gas to avoid catastrophic climate change.

The Real Agenda

The Trump administration has a long history of conflating corporate interests with national security. Trump himself has openly advocated for seizing other countries' oil resources, famously saying the United States should have "taken the oil" from Iraq.

Now, with Venezuela, we're seeing a similar playbook: frame regime change as a humanitarian mission, then position U.S. and allied corporations to profit from the country's natural resources. The CSIS report, published by a Washington think tank with deep ties to the defense and energy industries, reads less like an independent analysis and more like a roadmap for post-regime-change resource extraction.

Shell, BP, and other energy giants are already positioned to move in the moment sanctions are lifted. The infrastructure is in place. The licenses have been secured. All that's needed is a government in Caracas willing to sign the contracts.

The Venezuelan people, meanwhile, are left to hope that this time will be different -- that the wealth generated from their country's resources will actually reach them, rather than enriching multinational corporations and a new generation of corrupt elites.

History suggests otherwise.