Trump's war in Iran polls badly, but will it hurt Republicans in 2026? - USA Today

The retired 47-year-old Navy veteran thinks it's the wrong move, especially when she learned U.S. soldiers were killed so early in the conflict.

"I don't think it's worth it," Cline, who hails from Cherry Valley, California, told USA TODAY. "It's not our cause. It's their fight to fight. It's their regime and their problem to fix."

Cline recalls being deployed overseas in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. She said she watched intently when Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth told reporters at a March 2 press conference that this conflict would not morph into nation-building effort, but that it reminded her how the Bush administration's promises never materialized.

"It's kind of insulting the intelligence of the American people to just have generals get up there and Hegseth get up there and just say, 'go military, go troops and wave your American flag and just support us no matter what,'" said Cline, who also has worked at an anti-abortion pregnancy center.

"That was insulting," she added. "We want to know when, because we don't want any more deaths."

It is also fraying the Make America Great Again coalition, whose anti-interventionist wing has expressed a mixture of disappointment, betrayal and anger that experts warn could turn a gathering Democratic blue wave into a potential tsunami in the 2026 congressional elections.

Democrats have led in all but one of the dozens of polls conducted this year asking voters which party should control Congress.

Paul Brace, a political science professor emeritus at Rice University, said it is rare that foreign affairs affect an American election outcome. But he noted that elements of Trump's base are already disillusioned over other broken promises.

"Between the Epstein files and the anti-war sentiment among many Trump supporters, there's grounds there to break away from him," Brace said. "It's going to depend on their particular constituencies in the context of an election year that does not look good for them in the first place."

Most Americans oppose war with Iran, polls show

Almost a week after the first strikes, early snapshots show a nation wary about once again entering the Middle East with many memories still fresh from the incursions into Iraq and Afghanistan.

Just 27% of Americans approved in a Reuters/Ipsos survey released less than 48 hours after the first missiles were launched, while 43% disapproved.

A flash poll conducted by the Washington Post on March 1 found 52% oppose Trump' airstrikes versus 39% who support it with 9% saying they are unsure. Another one released by CNN on March 2 found about 59% of Americans disapprove of the decision to go to war, including 68% of independent voters.

Joe McGee, a Republican from Fairfield, Connecticut, said the Iranian government is an "exporter of terrorism" but questioned Trump's ability to administer this war, particularly at a time when the U.S. has quarreled with so many longtime allies. He predicted Democrats would gain at least 20 seats in the House midterms as a result.

"The problem is Trump has switched now from 'we don't want these foreign wars, these things have been a disaster,' and he's now initiated probably the largest one the Middle East that we've ever seen," McGee, 80, a retired business executive, told USA TODAY.

But most Republicans − including House Republicans running in competitive districts − are standing by the president, perhaps encouraged by surveys such as a March 3 one from Fox News showing 61% of Americans think Iran poses "a real national security threat."

Republican Paul Holtzman, an independent contractor from Rohrsburg, Pennsylvania, said he supports the military action against Iran, citing the foreign adversary's human rights abuses.

"I think that it's a path towards peace. You know, sometimes you can get peace through negotiation, but sometimes you have to use force to bring it about," he said.

Congressional GOP mostly sticking with Trump

Speaking to Fox News earlier this week, Rep. Mike Lawler, R-New York, who represents a competitive district, denounced Democrats for continuing to block Department of Homeland Security funding during the war over their demands to put restraints on immigration enforcement agents. He noted the agency was "created in the aftermath of 9/11."

Holtzman, 51, said he would like to see Iran, which had an Islamic revolution in 1979 after decades of reign under an autocratic monarch, enjoy a government that isn't religious based. He said Trump is being decisive, adding voters will tolerate a certain number of U.S. casualties for a limited time if they see the president taking the necessary step towards peace in the region.

"I'm not looking to see troops go in there and to invade," Holtzman said. "I mean, if it's necessary for us to help the people get the government where it's supposed to be, I guess I could be somewhat OK with that."

"Iran has been building not only its nuclear capability but also its conventional weapons capability to a point that it would threaten the entire region," Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-South Dakota, said in a March 4 post on X. "(The president) is taking steps to make the world, our country, and our people safer."

The Trump administration's staunchest supporters remain optimistic, too, telling USA TODAY the Iranian regime is turning global opinion against it by launching attacks in neighboring countries.

Heritage Foundation President Kevin Roberts, a key Trump ally, told USA TODAY he believes the administration will succeed within the four-week timetable outlined by the president and rally the country.

There will be a need for clearer communication about what comes next and the threat posed by Iran, Roberts said, adding that it has killed Americans "for decades" through its backing of proxy forces in the Middle East such as Hezbollah.

"We have begun to kneecap, very successfully, perhaps the largest state sponsor of terrorism in our lifetimes. This is a long time coming," Roberts said.

"We're going to succeed in Iran. We're not going to be there," Roberts said. "We're not going to be nation building, because the president's own conservative movement is honest enough to prevent that from happening."

Roberts also believes Trump will be "dialed in" on affordability and help his party hold its own in the midterm elections.

"What was already going to be more of a jump ball of a midterm election than most prognosticators indicate is going to be a really competitive midterm," he said. "I happen to think that conservatives will do well. Will conservatives have to work really hard at message discipline − yeah."