Two-Thirds of Voters Lack Full Confidence in Election Integrity, New Poll Finds

Confidence in Election Integrity Remains Fractured

Only one in three American voters express strong confidence that recent elections have been conducted fairly and accurately, according to a national survey released this week by RMG Research and the Napolitan Institute.

The poll found that just 34% of registered voters say they are "very confident" that votes have been accurately counted and proper winners declared in recent elections. Another 32% report being only "somewhat confident," while a combined 32% say they are either "not very confident" or "not at all confident" in election outcomes.

The findings underscore how deeply election fraud conspiracy theories have penetrated the American electorate, even as dozens of lawsuits challenging the 2020 election results failed in court and election officials across the country have repeatedly verified the integrity of voting systems.

Partisan Split on Election Threats

The survey also exposed a sharp divide over what voters perceive as the greater threat to election integrity. Nearly half of respondents (47%) said "too many non-voters being allowed to vote" represents a bigger problem than legitimate voters being prevented from casting ballots. Just 38% identified voter suppression as the more serious concern.

This framing reflects a core tension in American election policy. Republican-led states have passed dozens of laws in recent years restricting voting access, citing unsubstantiated claims of widespread fraud. Meanwhile, voting rights advocates and Democratic lawmakers have documented systematic efforts to make voting harder for communities of color, students, and low-income voters through strict ID requirements, reduced early voting periods, and polling place closures.

The Real Record on Voter Fraud

The perception that non-voters casting ballots represents a widespread problem contradicts extensive research on election fraud. Study after study has found that in-person voter fraud is vanishingly rare in the United States.

A comprehensive analysis by the Brennan Center for Justice found that voter fraud rates range from 0.0003% to 0.0025%. Election officials and law enforcement investigations have consistently concluded that the American voting system, while not perfect, maintains strong safeguards against fraudulent voting.

What does exist in abundance is documented evidence of voter suppression. Between 2013 and 2021, states closed nearly 1,700 polling places, with closures concentrated in communities of color. Strict voter ID laws have been shown to disproportionately disenfranchise Black, Latino, and Native American voters who are less likely to possess government-issued identification.

The Legacy of the Big Lie

The survey results reflect the lasting damage of election denialism that has been amplified by Donald Trump and his allies since the 2020 election. Despite losing more than 60 court cases and failing to produce evidence of widespread fraud, Trump and Republican officials continue to claim without proof that elections are "rigged" or "stolen."

This sustained disinformation campaign has had measurable effects on public confidence. The fact that two-thirds of voters lack complete confidence in election outcomes represents a crisis for democratic legitimacy, even as the actual mechanics of American elections remain fundamentally sound.

Methodology and Context

The survey of 1,000 registered voters was conducted online March 25-26, 2026, by RMG Research. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.

Scott Rasmussen, who conducted the poll, is president of RMG Research and founder of the Napolitan Institute. Rasmussen has been a prominent pollster for decades, though his methodology and framing of questions have sometimes drawn scrutiny from election experts.

The survey's framing of the central question about election fraud deserves examination. By asking voters to choose between "too many non-voters being allowed to vote" versus "too many legitimate voters being prevented from voting," the question accepts as premise that both problems exist at comparable scales. The evidence suggests they do not.

What This Means for Democracy

Confidence in elections is foundational to democratic governance. When large segments of the population doubt that votes are counted accurately or that proper winners are declared, it creates openings for authoritarian actors to claim power illegitimately.

The challenge facing election officials, journalists, and civic leaders is how to restore faith in democratic institutions while simultaneously protecting voting rights and ensuring genuine election security. That work becomes exponentially harder when political leaders continue to spread baseless claims about stolen elections for partisan advantage.

The data in this survey should serve as a warning: election denialism is not a fringe position. It has become mainstream belief for millions of Americans, with potentially catastrophic consequences for democratic stability.