US and Iran Both Claim Victory in 38-Day War — But Peace Remains a Mirage

The United States abruptly paused its 38-day war against Iran this week, with President Donald Trump eager to declare a “big day for world peace” and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth boasting of a “capital V military victory.” Yet beneath the surface, the ceasefire masks a far more complicated reality: the conflict’s root causes remain unresolved, and the Strait of Hormuz — a critical artery for global oil supply — remains perilously unstable.

Trump’s announcement of a two-week truce came just minutes before his self-imposed deadline to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, an ultimatum backed by apocalyptic threats that “a whole civilization will die” if ignored. Iran’s regime, claiming to have “had enough,” submitted a 10-point peace proposal that Trump described as a “workable basis” for negotiations. But that peace plan appears to concede little of substance to the US, allowing Iran to maintain control over the strait and even charge transit fees for ships — a sharp departure from the international control that existed before the war.

Pentagon officials highlighted the destruction wrought on Iran’s military, claiming to have eliminated roughly 80% of its air defenses, sunk 90% of its navy, and decommissioned 95% of its naval mines. Yet analysts caution that Iran still retains significant firepower and could potentially rearm or reposition its weapons to threaten the region anew. The strait’s reopening remains uncertain, with top US military leaders unable to confirm its status even days into the ceasefire.

The peace proposal also reportedly includes Iran’s insistence on continuing its nuclear enrichment program — a red line for the Trump administration and a key justification for the war itself. Leaked reports reveal that US negotiators even offered to fund Iran’s civilian nuclear fuel program before the conflict, only to be rebuffed. Now, the Pentagon is focused on securing enriched uranium buried under rubble from previous strikes, threatening to “take it out” if Iran does not relinquish it voluntarily.

This standoff leaves both sides claiming victory: Iran for surviving a brutal military campaign, and the US and Israel for dealing a heavy blow to Iran’s military capabilities. But the underlying question remains unanswered: what, precisely, does peace look like? Without meaningful concessions or a clear path to de-escalation, the ceasefire risks becoming just another pause in a cycle of conflict, with the world’s energy lifeline hanging in the balance.

At a moment when the Trump administration boasts of “regime change” and a new calculus for negotiating with Iran, the reality on the ground suggests a fragile truce rather than a durable peace. For now, all parties can claim success — but the real winner, if any, remains elusive.