US-Iran War Risks Becoming Costly ‘Frozen Conflict’ as Trump Plays for Time

The war between the US and Iran, launched with a surprise joint strike by the US and Israel, has settled into a precarious deadlock. Despite a ceasefire since April 8, neither side is ready to budge toward a permanent resolution. White House spokesperson Anna Kelly recently emphasized that Washington will not “be rushed into making a bad deal,” even as Iranian proposals remain on the table.

The conflict is increasingly resembling a “frozen” war — a no-war-no-peace scenario marked by ongoing blockades of the Strait of Hormuz, disruptions to global energy supplies, and periodic military strikes. Qatar’s Foreign Ministry warned this could lead to violent flare-ups that keep the region on edge indefinitely.

For the Trump administration, the calculus appears to be maintaining pressure through economic sanctions and naval blockades while reserving the right to targeted strikes. This approach aims to avoid a full-scale ground invasion, which experts estimate would cost over $650 billion annually and require half a million troops—an untenable prospect politically and financially.

Yet the cost of this frozen conflict is already staggering. The Quincy Institute estimates US expenditures in the first month alone at $20 to $25 billion. Iranian retaliation has inflicted billions in damage to US military assets and strained alliances with Gulf states. Meanwhile, American consumers face rising gas prices, which could further erode Trump’s approval ratings ahead of the midterm elections.

Analysts see this drawn-out conflict as a deliberate strategy rather than a mere miscalculation. The US hopes sustained economic and diplomatic pressure, backed by the threat of renewed strikes, will force Iran to concede. Iran, for its part, leverages control over the Strait of Hormuz to keep Washington in check, betting that the US will avoid escalation.

But experts warn this standoff cannot last indefinitely. Iran cannot sustain blockades forever, and the US political system may not weather the economic and human costs. The risk is a protracted conflict that prolongs regional instability and global economic disruption without delivering any decisive victory.

This frozen war exposes the Trump administration’s pattern of using foreign conflict as a distraction from domestic scandals and a tool to consolidate power—while leaving Americans to pay the price. As the war grinds on, it’s clear that the only winners are those profiting from endless conflict and chaos.