War with Iran: Big Claims, Big Questions - Jessica Yellin | Substack

Smoke rises in Tehran, near the Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting building, on March 1. The US and Israel on Saturday launched a massive and ongoing series of airstrikes against Iran. (Photo by Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu via Getty Images)

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A lot of you are asking whether this war is a good thing or a bad thing. Of course that’s not my job to say. Today we lay out the facts so you can form your own opinion.

This part is clear: Iran’s regime has been brutal, repressive, and cruel. The possibility that it could be weakened or even replaced after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei is understandably stirring hope for millions. If that were the whole story, this would be an easy call.

It is not the whole story.

The real questions are the ones nobody can answer yet: With the Supreme Leader dead, who fills the vacuum? What does this mean for U.S. troops now under fire across the Middle East, for civilians across the region, for global stability, and for oil prices as the Strait of Hormuz closes? What is the exit strategy and does the threat end when the bombing stops?

There are also real disputes at home — over whether Congress was properly briefed, over the legal rationale for the war, and over what the administration thinks winning looks like.

As we send this there are reports that the US and Israel are stepping up their strikes, with a particular focus on destroying Iran’s missile and drone production capabilities, air defenses, and naval assets.

Today, rather than an interview, I thought it was important for you to hear directly from our leaders on why the United States is at war.

First, here’s a video excerpt from President Trump’s remarks at the White House today in which he lays out his objectives in this war. Plus a link to a statement he posted overnight, which you can read here.

I’m also including the full Q&A with Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Capitol Hill today. His justification for war was more disciplined and narrower than Trump’s. Critics will say that both leave major questions unanswered and we get into that below.

In today’s newsletter, we start with the latest from Iran today. Then we break down the administration’s case for war and where the critics say it falls apart. We explain what the IRGC is, who the Ayatollah was, and why his death creates a dangerous power vacuum. We look public sentiment inside Iran and how US lawmakers are responding.

We also cover other headlines, including a record-breaking primary in Texas and multiple Supreme Court rulings that will affect millions.

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Iran: What We Know

First, here is today’s breaking news:

US Soldiers Fallen: CENTCOM today updates that six US service members were killed in an Iranian strike on a trailer at Shuaiba Port in Kuwait. Defense Secretary Hegseth said one projectile made it through air defenses. There was no siren and no warning. “Sadly,” Trump said of the troop casualties, “there will likely be more before it ends. That’s the way it is.”

Exit Strategy: Trump said the campaign against Iran will “last four to five weeks,” but insisted the Pentagon can and “will continue until all of our objectives are reached.” He told CNN that the “big wave hasn’t even happened” and is yet to come. And said he isn’t scared of putting “boots on the ground,” though other members of his administration insist that won’t happen.

Get Out: The US State Department on Monday warned US citizens to “DEPART NOW” from more than a dozen countries in the Middle East: Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Israel, the West Bank and Gaza, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Yemen. The announcement has numbers you can call if you need assistance.

Unlikely Encouragement? The Washington Post reports it wasn’t just Israel but also Saudi Arabia that encouraged Trump to launch these strikes on Iran. Saudi Arabia’s leader, MBS, reportedly held multiple private phone calls with Trump advocating for an attack. (Saudi Arabia has denied this and insisted it is in favor of diplomacy.)

Public Opinion: A CNN poll found that 59% of Americans object to the US strikes on Iran. 60% do not think Trump has a clear plan for handling the situation and 62% believe the administration should get congressional approval for any more military action.

Here’s context on the arguments for and against war, the internal politics in Iran, and some of the biggest stories.

The Administration’s Case For War: The administration’s justification for war is evolving. Trump (video above) has described an expansive set of goals: destroy Iran’s missile capacity, sink its navy, prevent it from obtaining a nuclear weapon, and stop it from funding proxy groups across the region. He has also suggested he hopes the war could lead to regime change. Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a narrower argument (video above): Israel was going to strike Iran anyway, Iran would likely have retaliated against US forces, so the administration chose to hit first. Rubio called degrading Iran’s ballistic missile program a core objective.

The Pushback: Critics say that case leaves major questions unanswered. The White House maintains Iran posed an imminent nuclear threat, but Trump previously claimed US strikes in 2025 “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program. Weeks before those strikes, US intelligence concluded Iran was not building a nuclear weapon; for those of you who don’t trust information that comes from our DNI, know that US and international inspectors said there was no evidence Iran had resumed work on a bomb. However, Iran’s enriched uranium was reportedly buried (not destroyed) by US strikes, and we don’t know their progress reconstituting the centrifuges needed to race to a bomb. The missile argument is also disputed. Trump said Iran would soon have ballistic missiles capable of striking the US, but US officials reportedly said that overstates the threat: a 2025 Defense Intelligence Agency assessment found Iran had no missiles capable of reaching the US, no evidence it was developing them, and that such a capability would likely take years. The administration has also sent mixed messages about the war itself. Trump is openly invoking regime change while Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth insists this is not a “regime-change war;” Vice President JD Vance says there is “no chance” of a prolonged conflict even as senior officials say that more jets and troops are headed to the region and that the campaign will continue.

Congress: Rubio told reporters Monday the next phase will be “even more punishing on Iran.” Congress, which did not authorize the war, remains deeply divided, and critics from both parties say the administration still has not explained its strategy clearly. Rubio on Monday briefed congressional leaders; Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) said he found officials’ “answers completely and totally insufficient.” Administration officials are set to brief all of Congress on Tuesday. Members will vote on a bipartisan war powers resolution that would block further military action in Iran without congressional approval — though it’s unlikely to win a veto proof majority. Sen. Mark Kelly (D-AZ) summarized the dominant criticism of this attack when he said the administration “did not go into this with any kind of strategic plan.” And no clear path to victory.

Spiraling Violence: The US and Israel have struck over 1,000 targets across dozens of cities in Iran, including the capital, Tehran. The strikes killed dozens of senior officials, including Iran’s Supreme Leader (and many of his family members), army chief of staff, defense minister, and the top commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), Iran’s elite military force. According to aid groups, the strikes also killed hundreds of people. Iran retaliated by firing hundreds of missiles and drones at targets in at least 10 US-aligned countries across the region. These countries are: Kuwait, Bahrain, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, and Cyprus. Most missiles were intercepted, but those that weren’t damaged various targets, including oil and gas facilities, US military bases, Dubai International Airport, luxury hotels, and apartment blocks, killing multiplepeople — including 11 in Israel, four in Syria, three in UAE, and one in Bahrain — and injuring dozens more. Iran may have hoped this pain will push Gulf states to press the US to halt the conflict, but some Gulf nations have instead called on the community to end its neutrality and join the conflict against Iran. When Iran’s foreign minister was pressed about an attack on Oman’s commercial port, he claimed some military units are “independent and somewhat isolated” from the central government.

The Ayatollah Is Dead. Now What? Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, ruled Iran for 36 years until his death on Saturday at 86. A primary architect of the 1979 Revolution and the regime’s power structure, he succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, founder of the Islamic Republic. Over the years, Khamenei, intensely hostile to the US and Israel, rebuilt a war-torn Iran into a regional powerhouse, exporting weapons and funding militias across the Middle East. As Supreme Leader, Khamenei held ultimate authority, which he solidified by strengthening the secret police and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Unlike the regular army that defends the country’s borders, the IRGC acts as an elite parallel military built to protect the regime from internal and external threats. It developed the IEDs that killed hundreds of US troops in Iraq, the Shahed drones currently used by Putin against Ukraine, and arms Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas with weapons and cyber capabilities as well. Inside Iran the IRGC is behind decades of prison horrors and was the lead force in massacringnorth of 30,000 young protesters just this year.

Regime Change? Khamenei’s death, and the deaths of so many of his officials, leaves a massive power vacuum. We don’t know who is likely to replace the Ayatollah. Despite tough talk from the President, US officials doubt the current power vacuum is enough to cause regime change on its own. That’s because there is no armed resistance inside the country (The IRGC exists to snuff that out). Iran’s remaining senior officials have formed a three-member temporary leadership council to oversee the appointment of a new Supreme Leader. Khamenei reportedly chose successors himself, and several arebeing discussed. Whoever succeeds will most likely have their fortunes tied to the survival of the regime, but they may have very different individual goals. A cleric might aim to deepen Iran’s theocracy, while a military figure might push the country further into military dictatorship. In the run up to the war, the CIA concluded that Khamenei might be replaced by IRGC hardliners, which could be a very bad outcome.

The Iranian People: You’ve likely seen videos of Iranians throughout Iran and around the world celebrating Khamenei’s death. Others openly grieved, including thousands of mourners who packed a central square in Tehran. Still more nervously await what might come next. One schoolteacher in the Iranian city of Shiraz told Reuters she “cannot be happy, because I don’t know what will happen to our country. We saw what happened in Iraq: chaos and bloodshed. I would prefer the Islamic republic to that situation.” Iran is a country of 93 million people, so it would be impossible to characterize a shared view. And it’s dangerous for them to speak freely. Iran’s censorship is extreme: being “against” the Supreme Leader is punishable with death. An August report by the Netherlands-based Gamaan Institute concluded that roughly 70% of Iranians oppose the regime, while just 11% support “the principles of the Islamic revolution and the Supreme Leader.” The report noted that disapproval of the regime rose above 80% during the 2022 Women, Life, Freedom uprising, and may have spiked again during the recent protests. The regime responded to each wave with brutal crackdowns, reportedly killing tens of thousands of people in January alone.

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