Why One SCOTUS Expert Thinks Alito Is Closer to Retirement Than We Realize ‍⚖️

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Donald Trump has already appointed three justices to the Supreme Court. If he appoints a fourth during the remainder of his second term, he will jump into the top 10 of presidents when it comes to SCOTUS picks. Appoint two more Justices and Trump is tied — with Abe Lincoln, William Howard Taft and Dwight Eisenhower — for the fourth most ever. (All of these stats comes via the amazing Bruce Mehlman.)

Which brings us to the curious cases of Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas — the two oldest justices on the Court and two of the most conservative.

Whispers about retirements — especially tied to Alito — have been rife of late, with Republican Senate control looking more and more shaky heading into the 2026 election. If Republicans lose the Senate this November and then a Court seat comes open, Trump’s options for who he might pick that could be confirmed would be much more limited (if he had any options at all).

So, will Alito and Thomas stay or go? I put that exact question to Supreme Court expert Steve Vladeck during a Substack Live conversation about the Court on Wednesday. (Steve writes a terrific Substack called One First about the Court and the Constitution that I HIGHLY recommend.)

*His answer on Alito stunned me. *

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