Venezuela’s Delcy Rodriguez under the tutelage of the U.S.

Venezuela’s interim leader, Delcy Rodriguez, is guiding the country under U.S. oversight following Maduro’s capture, with amnesty and oil reforms underway.

[×]

In a nutshell

• Rodriguez, a sanctioned Chavista veteran, is chosen to lead the transition
• U.S. oil licenses redirect revenue to public services, not elite theft
• Maduro’s fall strains Cuba’s economy and pressures Nicaragua
• For comprehensive insights, tune into our AI-powered podcast here

Nearly two months after Venezuelan strongman Nicolas Maduro’s capture in the United States’ Operation Absolute Resolve, a unique political framework has been implemented in Venezuela. The country is now governed under U.S. oversight, with Vice President Delcy Rodriguez at the helm. In essence, this is a capitulation of the Maduro-led administration, which has long faced accusations of corruption and criminal ties.

The decision to keep Ms. Rodriguez in power took many, both Venezuelans and international observers, by surprise. During a Senate Foreign Relations Committee hearing on January 28, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio clarified that the U.S. priority was stability in Venezuela, which required direct engagement with those in charge of the state security forces. He emphasized that this approach was intended to prevent a civil war, avoid clashes between factions and stop the mass migration of people into Colombia. “All of that has been avoided,” he said.

Who is Delcy Rodriguez?

Delcy Rodriguez, 56, is a lawyer and the daughter of a guerrilla leader who kidnapped an American businessman, William F. Niehous. Her father’s actions led to his imprisonment and subsequent death, which is widely believed to have been a murder. Throughout the presidencies of Hugo Chavez and Nicolas Maduro, Ms. Rodriguez has held several key public positions, including minister of communication, minister of finance, minister of foreign affairs and vice president.

She is known for her work on the international stage, where she has fervently defended the Venezuelan government against serious allegations, including those raised by the Organization of American States and the International Criminal Court. Ms. Rodriguez has been accused of weaving a wide international network of corruption and bribery to buy lobbyists and accomplices. As a result of these actions, she has faced international sanctions for undermining democracy and the rule of law in Venezuela.

Secretary Rubio stated in the Senate that Ms. Rodriguez’s interim government is complying with U.S. demands to stabilize the country, stop repression, revive the economy and release all political prisoners (which is being done through the enactment of an amnesty law). “We want to reach a phase of transition where we are left with a friendly, stable, prosperous Venezuela – and democratic – in which all elements of society are represented in free and fair elections,” he assured.

In response to concerns raised by some senators about the handling of oil, Mr. Rubio said the U.S. interest is to prevent it from being given away to Cuba and sent to China at subsidized prices. To that end, sanctioned oil will be released, licenses will be granted to companies to transport and market that oil, and the proceeds will be deposited into an account supervised by the U.S.

This approach ensures that resources are audited and allocated for health, education, safety and wages, rather than lining the pockets of the Chavista elite, as has been the case until now. As Secretary Rubio pointed out, Venezuela does not need financial aid from U.S. taxpayers, since it has more than enough resources to fund its reconstruction. He projected that within about six months, Venezuela could successfully complete the stabilization phase.

The left launches a narrative war

Mr. Maduro’s allies reacted to his arrest with ideological rhetoric, arguing that his presidential immunity had been violated and that Venezuela’s sovereignty had been infringed upon. Notably, these are the same arguments used by Mr. Maduro’s defense team in the New York court. Such claims deliberately overlook the fact that Mr. Maduro is not the legitimate president, as the 2024 elections were rigged.

Among those who made such statements were the leftist presidents of Brazil, Colombia, Cuba, Nicaragua and Uruguay, all of whom belong to the Sao Paulo Forum, as well as the foreign ministers of Russia, China and Iran. Colombian President Gustavo Petro took further action by calling a meeting of the Progressive International in Bogota on January 25 to condemn U.S. military actions in Venezuela. The final declaration from this organization states the following:

Under the banner of a revived Monroe Doctrine and a new “Trump Corollary,” … [The U.S. conducted a] military intervention in Venezuela through a campaign of bombing in the capital Caracas that claimed civilian lives and 32 Cuban combatants who bravely and honorably confronted the hostile intervention of the United States and defended the kidnapping of Nicolas Maduro.

The Venezuelan people dismissed these criticisms. A Venezuelan survey revealed that 92 percent of Venezuelans not only supported the capture of Mr. Maduro but also expressed gratitude to President Donald Trump for ordering it.

Read more on Venezuela

Venezuela’s oil sector remains uninvestableVenezuela key in Trump’s national security strategyGlobal oil market dynamics after U.S. intervention in Venezuela

Regional impact of Operation Absolute Resolve

The U.S. military incursion has significantly affected the rest of Latin America, particularly in Colombia. On October 19, 2025, President Trump accused President Petro of being an “illegal drug dealer” who promotes drug cultivation in his country. He warned that if Mr. Petro does not take action to destroy the drug crops, “the U.S. will close them up for him, and it won’t be done nicely.” Following President Trump’s public warnings, President Petro has engaged in discussions on issues including drug eradication. This warming of relations became clear during their meeting at the White House on February 3, when President Trump referred to the Colombian leader as “terrific” and agreed to enhance cooperation on counternarcotics efforts.

Mr. Maduro’s capture will severely affect Cuba, which is already facing a serious economic crisis. The loss of Venezuelan oil could suffocate the Cuban economy, potentially leading to the regime’s downfall. On January 29, President Trump issued an executive order declaring a “national emergency” regarding Cuba and announced tariffs on any countries that supply oil to the island. Several embassies and international companies are reportedly discreetly updating their evacuation protocols in anticipation of an emergency scenario in Cuba.

On January 10, the Nicaraguan government announced the release of dozens of individuals from its national penitentiary system, just one day after the U.S. demanded the freedom of more than 60 political prisoners in the country. This decision aligns with Venezuela, which is also under pressure from the U.S., as it starts to free its own political prisoners.

As predicted in a September 2025 report for GIS, recent elections across Latin America – including those in Ecuador, Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, Honduras and Costa Rica – have resulted in a notable defeat for the left. This trend is likely to persist in the upcoming 2026 elections in Peru, Colombia and Brazil. Factors contributing to this potential outcome include emerging information regarding Mr. Maduro’s connections with President Petro and Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva.

By the end of the year, Latin America could be predominantly right-wing, except for Mexico and Uruguay, where socialist governments remain in power for a few more years. As a result, alliances between Latin American countries and the U.S. are likely to strengthen. This could involve joint efforts to combat organized crime and drug trafficking, as well as increased U.S. investment in the region. Such developments would align with the goals of the Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine, as outlined in America’s National Security Strategy document.

Ms. Rodriguez seeks to prevent the end of Chavismo

Mr. Maduro’s extreme authoritarianism and connections to the drug-trafficking Cartel of the Suns have led to divisions within the Sao Paulo Forum. Moreover, the ruling party in Venezuela, the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV), has suffered significant damage due to Mr. Maduro’s often irrational behavior, which has rendered the party unviable for the future.

Mr. Maduro acted against his party’s interests, and even against his own, as he should have left when Secretary Rubio offered him the opportunity. Instead, he was following orders from the Cuban regime, which aimed solely to continue extracting resources from Venezuela. The regime’s tight control over Mr. Maduro was clearly demonstrated when U.S. military forces killed his 32 bodyguards, all of whom turned out to be Cuban.

Therefore, it is not unreasonable to assume that Ms. Rodriguez participated in the design of post-Maduro Venezuela. Before President Maduro was removed from power, sources say that his then vice president and her brother privately told American officials they were ready to work with the administration once Mr. Maduro was out of the picture.

Unlike Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello and Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino, Ms. Rodriguez has not been officially indicted in the U.S. If she follows President Trump’s directives, she might eventually rebuild the remnants of Chavismo and steer a more moderate PSUV. However, this will not be an easy task for her, as she is currently facing international sanctions linked to human rights abuses and corruption.

Threats to Trump’s plan

The U.S. government’s plan in Venezuela could be jeopardized by two factors. The first is Mr. Cabello’s resistance: He still controls irregular armed groups, and it would require U.S. action to neutralize his efforts.

The second is the possibility that the American Republican Party will lose its current parliamentary majority in Congress. Typically, the party controlling the White House loses seats in midterm elections, which will take place in November 2026. Some pollsters suggest that the Democratic Party has a strong chance of gaining a majority in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. If the Republicans lose control of Congress, it would be significantly more challenging for President Trump to utilize U.S. military power to intervene in Venezuela again.

[×]

Scenarios

Most likely: Stabilization under interim leadership

Since no forces within Venezuela can challenge U.S. military power, Ms. Rodriguez’s interim government fully complies with the demands of the Trump administration. Efforts by individuals such as Mr. Cabello to thwart the U.S. plans fail. After Venezuela stabilizes, economic recovery begins and exiled politicians – including opposition leader Maria Corina Machado – return. Free and transparent elections will be held, although it is unlikely they will occur in the coming months.

As a result, foreign investment starts flowing into Venezuela, especially in the oil sector, transforming the country into an energy supply hub for the entire region. The new Venezuelan government helps promote freedom and democracy in Latin America, while also working with the U.S. to combat drug trafficking and organized crime.

Less likely: Democrats obstruct Trump’s plan

In the U.S. midterm elections, the Republican Party loses its majority in Congress. The new Democratic-controlled majority prevents President Trump from using force in Venezuela. Without a military presence in the Caribbean to threaten them, members of the Cartel of the Suns try to stay in power. The Venezuelan people respond to stop this, leading to outbreaks of violence.

As a result, the transition in Venezuela is delayed, and investment slows. By this time (after November 3), it is likely that the left has lost the elections in Peru, Colombia and Brazil. The continent, largely controlled by the right, pushes for democracy in Venezuela, which is eventually established, but months later than expected.

Contact us* today for tailored geopolitical insights and industry-specific advisory services.*