KJZZ's Friday NewsCap: State of the Union was 'Donald Trump's newest reality TV show'

KJZZ’s Friday NewsCap revisits some of the biggest stories of the week from Arizona and beyond.

Doug Cole of HighGround and Gaelle Esposito of Creosote Partners joined The Show to talk about what’s in a name when it comes to a political party, reaction to this week’s State of the Union and more.

Conversation highlights

MARK BRODIE: So let's start with the State of the Union. Not so much what the president said but the fact that some members of Arizona's delegation were there, some were not. Gaelle, a lot of Democrats stayed away. We heard from Sen. Gallego just a moment ago.

Sen. Mark Kelly, though, notably was there. I'm curious what you make of the decision of should I stay or should I go?

GAELLE ESPOSITO: Yeah, I mean, I think when we look at this decision of staying or going, we really saw with the president's speech a justification of why they should not have been there. Too many games, too much childish, pathetic actions from the president with “stand for this, don't stand for that.” You know, it was a clown show, really.

And so I think there was a lot of justification for the members who decided not to. And for the ones who did, even more power to them for being able to stomach that.

BRODIE: What do you think, Doug?

DOUG COLE: Well, I think they missed a big opportunity because it was a medal fest. I mean, we had gold medals, we had the Medal of Freedom, we had the Medal of Honor, we had, we had the Purple Heart. I mean, everybody had medals at that stage.

BRODIE: It's like Oprah was there or something.

COLE: Yeah, it was great almost. I was going to give away a car.

But it's part of the showmanship that the State of the Union has turned into. And when there's a Democrat president and the Republicans walk out and protest and yell inappropriately, OK. And conversely, Democrats did the same thing on Tuesday night. Some did and walked out and unveiled their folded signs.

And this is what the State of the Union has turned into. Used to be a very solemn event. Didn't last more than, say, 40-45 minutes. Now I feel sometimes like we're in the Kremlin or in North Korea, and we just have to listen to two nearly two-hour speeches.

BRODIE: Does this resonate — Gaelle, you mentioned sort of the games, you reference showmanship. Does this resonate with voters, whether people stood when the president said stand or if they clapped long enough for the hockey team? Like, do actual voters care about this?

ESPOSITO: No. I can't imagine that they do. Once again, I think it shows how far we've devolved and how much this has just become Donald Trump's newest reality TV show. It's not about the things that impact people's lives, and they're tired of it.

COLE: Look, he needed a reset. I don't know if he accomplished that. I mean, we're going to very contentious midterm elections here. And history points to that the party that controls all three branches — the House, the Senate, not all three branches, but the House, Senate and the White House — does not do well.

I mean, history is pretty clear on that. I mean, there's like one or two exceptions in the last hundred years of that. So the Republican Party is facing headwinds, and I think a lot of people were looking forward to a bit of a reset. I think there was an attempt for that, but I don't think he landed it.

BRODIE: All right, so speaking of what might be coming in November, the midterm elections, obviously a little bit of news this week on some of those races in Arizona. Gaelle, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee put two Democratic challengers into their what's called **Red to Blue list***, which is trying to turn districts currently held by Republicans to Democrats.*

The first one is Joanna Mendoza in the 6th Congressional District. That's southern Arizona, the seat currently held by Juan Ciscomani. Also Jonathan Nez, who ran two years ago in the 2nd District. That's the seat currently held by Eli Crane, sort of in the northern part of Arizona.

COLE: About the size of Indiana.

BRODIE: You put a lot of miles on your car or your truck campaigning in that district. I'm curious, it seems like Nez overperformed, I think, some Democratic goals in 2024 but still lost pretty handily. Is that specifically a race you think Democrats realistically can win?

ESPOSITO: I think when we look at the results of the special elections that have been taking place, we're seeing crazy overperformance among Democratic candidates.

And so I think this really shows the environment that the party thinks they're walking into this coming November that they're putting Nez on this list. And yes, he did really overperform in the last election.

And so I think there is a justification for doing it, especially in this environment.

BRODIE: Of the two, do you think one has a better chance to not just make it through the primary but actually win in November?

ESPOSITO: I think Ciscomani is in real trouble, and I think we can really see that based on some of the actions he's taken by embracing far-right figures ... giving up on this performative centrism that he used to at least try to nominally accomplish when he first ran. I think really he knows he's in danger and is looking to what comes after.

BRODIE: What do you think, Doug?

COLE: The power of incumbency is enormous. He's already won reelection there. I disagree. Yeah, everybody's in danger. But I think that he's going to pull it off.

I think Eli Crane, that's really two districts, OK?

BRODIE: Just in terms of size, you mean?

COLE: Well, yeah. The north is Native American lands, which (Nez) will do well in as the former president.

BRODIE: Jonathan Nez.

COLE: Jonathan Nez of the Navajo Nation. And then you have the south, which is the White Mountain area, which is extremely — I mean we have that Trump store in Show Low, OK? That is extremely red.

And how Congressman Crane votes in D.C. and who he aligns himself with, yeah. It's very MAGA, and it's very Freedom Caucus-ish. But he is well known in the district for his constituent services, and he's there every weekend, and he works that district hard.

So I think we'll see an overperformance by the former president of the Navajo Nation. But I see that seat, CD2, staying red also.

BRODIE: You said you see Ciscomani pulling it out. Do you see it as a close race or maybe even closer than it was two years ago?

COLE: I think so. It's going to be highly competitive. There's going to be a ton of money poured in there. So the TV stations in Tucson are going to just have great years in revenue.

BRODIE: OK, so another super competitive race in Arizona: the 1st Congressional district. That's sort of East Valley, the seat that David Schweikert currently has. He's of course leaving to run for governor.

Doug, your firm put out a poll this week on the Democratic primary that showed there are two candidates who ran before — Amish Shah and Marlene Galan Woods. Shah won two years ago, and your poll has him up big again.

COLE: Big, big. I think that that race, our conclusion was even though there's still 49% undecided in that race, with the lead that former state Rep. Amish Shah has — roughly 35-11 if I remember correctly. Even if all the undecideds would happen to go to the other candidates or other candidate, it's still a number that I don't think can be overcome.

I think the Democratic Party would be good to consolidate that race at this point and focus on the general election because they need 100,000 independents. They need the Democrats to stay tight with their candidate, and they need roughly 100,000 independents to vote for the Democratic candidate in order to be successful in CD1.

BRODIE: Gaelle, do the results surprise you at all?

ESPOSITO: I mean, Amish Shah is the only one who has spent money recently. He was the candidate last time around. He was on TV for a very long time. So it doesn't surprise me to see him slightly ahead at this point.

I do have to wonder what the good folks running the Arizona Independent Party have an interest in who the Democratic nominee is in CD1 here with Highground there.

COLE: But wait a minute. We have nothing to do with the Arizona Independent Party. So Gaelle, that is inaccurate.

ESPOSITO: Oh, OK.

COLE: Very inaccurate.

ESPOSITO: Very inaccurate. OK, that's good to know.

So I'm very interested in what this will end up being in the end with Shah having been the one who has spent so far. But really at 32% — was that right? … Yeah, I still think there's a lot of room for this to change.

BRODIE: Do you think he would be the strongest general election candidate? Obviously we don't know who's going to come out on the Republican side. Jay Feely and State Rep. Joseph Chaplik are in that race.

But do you have a sense at this point of who might be the strongest candidate for Democrats to win a seat that they probably need to win to take control of Congress?

ESPOSITO: I think the strongest candidate is going to be the one who makes it out of the primary. I'm a big believer that if you can't do it in the primary, you weren't the strongest candidate at the end of the day. So I think we'll wait and see, but we've got a good field there.