Where in the World is Marco?

Or, flirting with the European authoritarians

One of the stranger happenings at the Munich Security conference (MSC) involved a decision by the US Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, to cancel, at the last minute, a meeting with European leaders on Ukraine. [1] Rubio also avoided any mention of Ukraine in his keynote speech to the MSC.

Stranger happenings #2, was what occurred after the MSC. Rubio took himself off to Hungary and Slovakia, both led by fellow-travellers of the Putin regime. He was there to do a little deal-making and to boost Trumpist connections with both governments, in Hungary flagrantly so.

Rubio went first to Bratislava, meeting on February 15 with both the Slovak President, Peter Pellegrini, and the Slovak PM, Robert Fico. Deal-making involved a Slovak desire to see the US (Westinghouse) build a new nuclear power plant in the country, and to acquire additional F-16s. [2] On the US side, there is pressure on Slovakia to meet the NATO 5% target for defence spending, which the Fico government has so far resisted.

Then it was on to Budapest, to meet a Trump favourite, Hungarian PM Viktor Orban. Orban has ruled Hungary, seemingly forever. He served as PM from 1998 to 2002 and then returned as PM in 2010 and is now in his fourth consecutive term, taking Hungary steeply rightward. [3] Orban has made no bones about his pro-Russian stance, and his opposition to European support for Ukraine and to EU policies, especially on issues around immigration policy, democratic standards, greater European integration and sanctions against Russian oil. In a recent campaign speech Orban went so far as to say that Brussels was more of a threat to Hungary than Russia. [4]

How’s that for a friend, Marco and Donald?

Orban is now locked in a battle for re-election, scheduled for April 12. By all accounts he and his Fidesz party face a tough fight and are behind in the polls. [5]

Rubio talked deals while in Budapest, again on nuclear energy cooperation. Orban talked up the idea of a visit by Trump to Hungary, ideally before the April election. He also complained to Rubio about what he called Ukrainian interference in Hungary’s elections, citing the Zelensky government’s criticism of Orban’s resistance to providing weapons and financial aid to Kyiv and of Hungarian threats to block a future EU accession by Ukraine.

For his part, Rubio was not averse to a little electoral interference himself, reminding Hungarians at a news conference on February 16 of the close personal relationship between Trump and Orban, and stating outright that “President Trump is deeply committed to your success because your success is our success.” [6] Whether such blatant expressions of support for Orban ahead of the April election will swing voters in Hungary remains to be seen. So far, they haven’t. [7]

Rubio’s swing through the authoritarians of Eastern Europe may have had another, more damaging, impact, stiffening their opposition to the latest EU sanctions package against Russia. That package, the 20th, was meant to increase pressure on the Russian war economy, especially by adding new measures to target Russian oil exports and the use of the shadow tanker fleet. [8]

Hungary, in particular, has blocked the sanctions over a dispute about Russian oil supplies.[9] The dispute revolves around flows of Russian crude to Hungary and Slovakia through a branch of the Druzhba (“Friendship”) oil pipeline. The pipeline was damaged by a Russian drone strike on January 27. Ukraine has published satellite and other images of the damage to the line. [10] Both Hungary and Slovakia accuse Ukraine of delaying repairs to the pipeline, an accusation that Ukraine denies. Hungary, in particular, is highly dependent on Russian energy supplies. Nearly 90% of Hungary’s crude oil imports come from Russia via the Druzhba pipeline. [11] It refuses to explore alternative sources. [12]

In the meantime, Hungary and Slovakia have blocked, in retaliation, diesel exports to Ukraine, a vital commodity as Ukraine seeks to withstand punishing Russian attacks on its energy infrastructure. [13] Both countries took this cruel step shortly after Rubio’s visit to their capitals.

Sadly, EU leaders visiting Kyiv on February 24, to mark the start of the fifth year of Russia’s war against Ukraine, were forced by Hungarian action to come empty handed. [14] As the EU’s High Representative, Kaja Kallas, was forced to admit, “This is a setback and a message we did not want to send today, but the work continues.” In a shot directed at the Trump administration Kallas said, “it is not Ukraine that is the obstacle to peace, Russia is. We must flip the script: from pressure on Ukraine to surrender territory to what Russia must do to meet the basic conditions for a just and lasted (sic) peace.” [15]

A blocked EU sanctions package and Hungarian opposition to the implementation of a major EU financial aid package, a loan of 90 billion euros, to Ukraine. Would Orban have been so bold without the latest expression of US support and friendship? When asked about this, EU leaders have refused, politely, to speculate. But all the same, thank you Marco. [16]

So begins the fifth year of Russia’s war against Ukraine. Authoritarians warming their hands at the Trump fire; Trumpists engaged in foreign interference in elections; US backsliding on Ukraine.

What next for Hungary come mid-April? If Orban is out, that will come as a relief to the EU and to Ukraine, and will send a dispiriting sign to the Trump regime about the “golden age” of US-Hungary relations. It would also isolate the Slovaks. If Orban stays, expect more political tension in Europe, as the EU emerges as Ukraine’s top supporter, and gets set to slap back at Budapest and Bratislava.

[1] NPR, “Secretary of State Marco Rubio pulls out of high-level meeting on Ukraine,” conversation with Fiona Hill, February 14, 2026, https://www.npr.org/2026/02/14/nx-s1-5708835/secretary-of-state-marco-rubio-pulls-out-of-a-high-level-meeting-on-ukraine; The Kyiv Independent, “Rubio skips meeting with European leaders at Munich conference, “ February 14, 2026, https://kyivindependent.com/rubio-skips-ukraine-meeting-european-leaders-munich/;

[2] Deutsche Welle (DW), “Marco Rubio visits Trump allies in eastern Europe,” February 15, 2026, https://www.dw.com/en/marco-rubio-visits-trump-allies-in-eastern-europe/a-75980359

[3] BBC, “Who is Viktor Orban, Hungary’s PM with a 14-year grip on power,” February 13, 2024, https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-67832416

[4] Deutsche Welle (DW), “Marco Rubio visits Trump allies in eastern Europe,” February 15, 2026, https://www.dw.com/en/marco-rubio-visits-trump-allies-in-eastern-europe/a-75980359

[5] Reuters, “Hungary’s opposition Tisza party widens it’s lead ahead of Orban’s Fidesz,” February 25, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/hungarys-opposition-tisza-party-widens-its-lead-ahead-orbans-fidesz-2026-02-25/

[6] PBS, “Rubio boosts Orban’s bid for another term during Budapest visit,” February 16, 2026, https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/rubio-boosts-orbans-bid-for-another-term-during-budapest-visit

[7] Reuters, “Hungary’s opposition Tisza party widens it’s lead ahead of Orban’s Fidesz,” February 25, 2026, https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/hungarys-opposition-tisza-party-widens-its-lead-ahead-orbans-fidesz-2026-02-25/

[8] For a timeline of existing EU sanctions, see https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/policies/sanctions-against-russia/timeline-sanctions-against-russia/

[9] CBC/AP, “Hungary threatens veto on EU’s 20th Russian sanctions package over halted oil shipments,” February 22, 2026, https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/hungary-eu-sanctions-russia-strike-ukraine-9.7101483

[11] CNN, “By Buying Russia’s Oil, Hungary is Fueling the Kremlin’s war machine and enriching foundations linked to Orban,” February 16, 2026, https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/16/business/hungary-russia-oil-orban-intl

[12] Center for the Study of Democracy, “Cutting the cord: Russian oil supply to central Europe is not indispensable,” https://csd.eu/fileadmin/userupload/publicationslibrary/files/202602/Cuttingthe_Cord-EN.pdf

[13] Euro News, “Hungary and Slovakia halt diesel exports to Ukraine amid oil transit dispute,” February 18, 2026, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2026/02/18/hungary-and-slovakia-halt-diesel-exports-to-ukraine-amid-oil-transit-dispute

[14] EU Press conference, February 23, 2026, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/foreign-affairs-council-press-conference-high-representative-kaja-kallas-2_en

[15] EU Press conference, February 23, 2026, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/foreign-affairs-council-press-conference-high-representative-kaja-kallas-2_en

[16] EU Press conference, February 23, 2026, https://www.eeas.europa.eu/eeas/foreign-affairs-council-press-conference-high-representative-kaja-kallas-2_en